動力電池循環於臺灣的發展潛力及回收策略評估

全球暖化問題日益嚴重，各國紛紛推出不同的減碳政策；而其中電動車的推廣被視為關鍵，台灣電動車每年的新增掛牌數亦在上升。電動車的急速成長將增加對動力電池及其材料的需求，包括鋰、鈷、鎳、銅、錳和石墨，這對於材料仰賴進口的台灣來說，存在一定的風險；而動力電池需求的不斷增加導致了經過一定的年限後，將產生大量汰換後的動力電池。本研究以系統動力學預測未來台灣電動車市場的規模，繼而估算動力電池及其材料的需求及報廢量；並探討報廢動力電池循環帶來的影響。要實現動力電池循環，需先對報廢動力電池的收集進行管理以確保報廢動力電池能進入正規的回收體系，而消費者作為電池所有權者為回收鏈中的第一環，促進消費者的回收意願是有必要的；因此，本研究亦以經濟誘因的角度，包括押金制度、以舊換新補貼及兩者並行的情境下探討其對消費者回收意願的影響，並對制度的實施進行財務分析。根據模型預測，台灣2030年電動車的銷售量將超過12萬輛，動力電池的報廢量達13,640公噸，動力電池中的鋰、鈷、鎳、錳、銅和石墨2030年的需求量分別為1365公噸、1815公噸、5640公噸、1789公噸、8409公噸和13351公噸，而六種材料進入報廢階段量分別對應為205公噸、273公噸、848公噸、269公噸、1264公噸以及2007公噸。對於動力電池的循環回收來說，一方面其材料回收的技術及市場價格會影響材料的回收量及再生經濟價值。另一方面，電池的循環回收亦對緩解材料的短缺有莫大的影響。本文在探討經濟誘因措施的研究中發現，若以生產者責任組織(Producer Responsibility Organization)作主導，且以舊換新補貼與押金制度同時實行下，從消費者中收集報廢動力電池的效果及成本效益最佳。

關鍵字

電動車；動力電池；動力電池材料；系統動力學；報廢量；回收；經濟誘因

並列摘要

Electric vehicles are considered to be the key way for tackling GHG emissions from road transport. In Taiwan, the new electric cars registration number is also increasing by year. However, the higher penetration of the electric vehicles, which means the higher demand of the power batteries and the raw materials, including lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper, manganese and graphite. In addition, with the end of life of the power batteries, there will be a large number of scrapper batteries. This study applies a system dynamics model to predict the growth of the electric cars market, then estimates the demand and the end-of-life (EoL) volume of the power battery and its raw materials; the repurposing and remanufacturing of the EoL batteries are also discussed. On the other hand, facilitating the intention of consumers to recycle their retired batteries to the formal channel is necessary, as the consumer is the owner of the battery and the starting point of the recycling chain. Economic incentives such as deposit and subsidy are effective tools to enhance the recycling rate. Therefore, this study investigates the influences of the economic incentives on the recycling intention of consumers. According to the prediction, there will be over 120 thousand electric cars in Taiwan, and the scrapped volume of the power batteries will reach 13,640 tonnes, resulting in a volume of Li, Co, Ni, Cu, Mn and graphite entering the EoL of up to 205、273、848、269、1264 and 2007 tonnes, respectively. The amount and the economic value of the recycled materials which depend on the recycling efficiency and the market price, the results indicated that the importance of the development of new techniques. For the investigation of the effects of economic incentives on consumers’ recycling intention, the study found that a combination of deposit and subsidies is expected to achieve the greatest collection rate; and if the recycling system is managed by a PRO, the revenues and the expenditures of the scheme is the most balanced.