基於決策樹分析方法對中國流動人口居留意願影響因素的研究

隨著社會經濟的不斷發展，生產要素在不同地區之間的交換聚集，人口流動現象越來越普遍。20世紀90年代之後，由大陸農村到城市發展的流動人口數量增加非常快，人口的流入為城市發展提供了充足的勞動力，人均收入水平也不斷的提高，但同時部分地區人口數量過載造成的醫療資源緊缺、子女教育問題和勞動力就業困難等社會問題也會暴露出來，研究人口居留意願能幫助我們更好的了解其中的原因。本文通過對2014年至2016年流動人口動態監測數據的研究，運用條件推斷決策樹(Conditional Inference Trees)法分析影響流動人口居留意願的因素。最後發現以下特征：剛流入的流動人口容易受到自身收入、教育背景、和房屋支出等生存壓力相關的因素影響，而在本地停留時間較長人群的居留意願與其婚姻狀況、流動距離等家庭觀念相關的因素聯繫較為緊密。

關鍵字

流動人口居留意願；決策樹分析法；數據挖掘

並列摘要

With the continuous development of society, the transfer of production capital across internal regions in China becomes more and more frequent, thereby raising population mobility Since the 1990s, the number of people moving from rural to urban areas grew rapidly. The inflow of population supplies urban areas with ample labor, whereas factories and firms in urban areas provide migrant workers with income. However, over-crowded cities have led to a shortage of medical and educational resources in the region. To provide evidence that inform policy, this thesis analyzes the factors underlying rural-urban migrants' settlement intention by conditional inference decision tree. Using data from the 2014-2016 Floating Population Health Dynamics Survey, we found that the newly-arrived floating population’s settlement intention was easily affected by factors related to cost-of-living pressure, such as net income, educational background, housing expenses, etc., while the settlement intention of people who have migrated for a long time was closely related to family factors, such as marital status and distance to hometown.