中國的對外經濟戰略與東南亞的回應：以印尼、菲律賓、越南為例（2013-2019）

China's Foreign Economic Strategy and the Response in Southeast Asia: A Case Study of Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam (2013-2019)

陳明德(Chen Ming-Te)

指導教授 ： 楊昊

國立政治大學/國際事務學院/東亞研究所/碩士(2022年)

https://doi.org/10.6814/NCCU202201263

摘要

本文旨在探討中國對外經濟戰略對東南亞的影響，並聚焦在東南亞國家如何回應：國內對中國戰略的反饋以及國家在外交選擇光譜上的變化。本文的研究目的在於，透過近年中國崛起與其在東南亞的經濟舉措，來評估區域國家對外政策的本質，並針對地緣政治的結構秩序與未來發展圖像進行剖析。
　　本文將時間軸聚焦在2013年至2019年，並以印尼、菲律賓、越南作為案例研究的國家。在研究方法方面，本文在Chen and Yang（2013）類型學分析的研究基礎上，透過相關政治及經濟指標的設立，並加入國內政治的影響因素來測量案例國「威脅感知」和「經濟期望」的變化，希望能藉此剖析中國戰略對東南亞國家外交立場的影響，並探討各國於戰略光譜上是否有發生位移的現象。
　　根據本文的案例研究，案例國皆在戰略光譜中產生不同程度的變化與位移情形，顯示東南亞國家對外政策「動態性」(dynamic)的本質。最後，本文除針對中國的對外經濟戰略進行整體性的剖析，亦針對東南亞國家的外交政策、區域地緣政治的展望提供相關見解與建議。
　　整體而言，本文側重在外交立場的動態性、梳理出影響戰略選擇的指標與變數，並聚焦於大國小國政策及回應相互影響的連動性，期望研究成果能夠一定程度為中國的對外經濟戰略與東南亞國家的對外政策提供相關諭示。

關鍵字

經濟戰略 ； 外交立場 ； 類型學分析 ； 戰略光譜 ； 威脅感知 ； 經濟期望

並列摘要

This thesis aims to evaluate the impact of China's foreign economic strategy on Southeast Asia, and focuses on how Southeast Asian countries responded: domestic feedback on China's strategy and variations in the spectrum of diplomatic choices. The purpose of this thesis is to evaluate the nature of foreign policies of regional countries through the recent rise of China and its economic initiatives in Southeast Asia, and to analyze the structural order and future development of geopolitics.
　　This thesis focuses on the timeline from 2013 to 2019, and takes Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam as case studies. Based on the explanatory typology analysis of Chen and Yang (2013), this thesis adopts political indicators, economic indicators, and the influencing factors of domestic politics to measure the variation of “threat perception” and “economic expectation” of the case countries. This thesis aims to analyze the influence of China’s strategy on the diplomatic stance of Southeast Asian countries, and evaluate whether there is a shift in the strategy spectrum of each country.
　　According to the case study in the thesis, each of the case country shows different degrees of variation and shift in the strategic spectrum, which suggests the "dynamic" nature of the foreign policy of Southeast Asian countries. Finally, this thesis also makes an overall analysis of China’s foreign economic strategy, and provides insights and suggestions on the prospects of foreign policies of Southeast Asian countries and regional geopolitics.
　　In conclusion, this thesis focuses on the dynamic nature of diplomatic stance, sorts out the indicators and variables that affect strategic choices, and concentrates on the interaction between the policies and responses of great powers and small countries. It is expected that the research results can provide relevant guidance for China's foreign economic strategy and the foreign policies of Southeast Asian countries.

並列關鍵字

Economic strategy ； Diplomatic stance ； Explanatory typology ； Strategic spectrum ； Threat perception ； Economic expectations

參考文獻

一、中文部分

BBC News 中文2015，〈越共總書記阮富仲承認海上爭端是大問題〉，https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/world/2015/04/150408_vietnam_nguyen_phu-trong_china (Accessed on April 19, 2022 )

BBC News中文，2014，〈中國回應仁愛礁對峙：絕不容許侵佔〉， https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/china/2014/03/140329_china_philippines_reax (Accessed on September 14, 2021)

中國駐越南大使，2016，〈中越關係〉，http://vn.china-embassy.gov.cn/chn/sbgxc/　(Accessed on August 25, 2021)

巴殿君、全金姬、單天雷，2020，〈建構主義視角下新型國際關係文化的構建〉，《新視野》，1：116-122。