應用系統動態模式STELLA模擬臺灣溫室氣體及空氣污染物整合減量效益

Evaluating Co-benefit Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollutants Reduction in Taiwan by System Dynamic Model STELLA

許哲豪(Je-Hau Shie)

指導教授 ： 曾昭衡

國立臺北科技大學/工程學院/環境工程與管理研究所/碩士(2009年)

https://doi.org/10.6841/NTUT.2009.00475

摘要

本研究使用系統動態學軟體STELLA架構臺灣交通運輸及能源部門溫室氣體及五種主要空氣污染物氮氧化物（NOX）、硫氧化物（SOX）、懸浮微粒（PM10）、一氧化碳（CO）、非甲烷碳氫化合物（NMHC）系統動力模式，其中應用最大增量反應性MIR將非甲烷碳氫化合物（NMHC）濃度換算臭氧（O3）濃度。
接著，以系統動態學軟體整合交通運輸與能源部門減量行動，分別探討整合回饋前後之減量差異，再著經由空氣資源整合效益模式（Air Resources Co-Benefits model）計算得知各減量行動中因主要空氣污染物減量所呈現之健康效益情況（包括增加國民平均餘命與所節省之醫療支出金額）。
研究結果得知假若整合回饋推估綜合交通運輸與能源部門減量行動估算臺灣溫室氣體及總主要空氣污染物減量比例，至2030年，若採取「適度政策承諾策略」時，溫室氣體較BAU排放量525,164 Gg/年可減少約108,830 Gg/年，減少約20.72 %之排放量。總主要空氣污染物較BAU排放量19,502 Gg/年可減少約4,132 Gg/年，減少約21.18 %之排放量。若採取「主要政策承諾策略」時，溫室氣體較BAU排放量525,164 Gg/年可減少約202,114 Gg/年，減少約38.49 %之排放量。總主要空氣污染物較BAU排放量19,502 Gg/年可減少約7,673 Gg/年，減少約39.34 %之排放量。若採取「完全執行模擬情境」時，溫室氣體較BAU排放量525,164 Gg/年可減少約310,944 Gg/年，減少約59.21 %之排放量。總主要空氣污染物較BAU排放量19,502 Gg/年可減少約11,805 Gg/年，減少約60.53 %之排放量；然而，於主要空氣污染物減量所得之健康效益，估算增加壽命與所需支出金額，臺灣於綜合目前可行之交通運輸及能源部門減量行動下，因減少之主要空氣污染物排放濃度下，故臺灣每人終生平均可增加78.13日/人-終生，以及全台灣國民共可節省醫療支出為6,549,283千元/年。
由本研究結果得知落實現階段可行技術（完全執行模擬情境），且將交通運輸及能源二部門減量措施徹底整合執再加上未來綠能科技 (如燃料電池、太陽能光電及氫能)新技術的導入、再生能源產業的蓬勃發展及能源市場積極推動，溫室氣體的排放減量是有可能及早達到國家2025年回到2000年排放量（2.14 億噸）。
綜合交通運輸及能源部門各項減量行動中，，LED燈取代傳統交通號誌燈減量行動之成本效益比最高，然而，交通運輸部門之鼓勵油電混合車取代一般汽油車減量行動，因減量行動之投資成本極高，故其成本效益比為所有減量行動中最差的。

關鍵字

系統動力模式 ； 溫室氣體 ； 空氣污染物 ； 社會效益

並列摘要

This research shows that the author uses systematic dynamic model software STELLA to construct Taiwan transportation, greenhouse gas of energy department and systematic dynamic models of five major air pollutants as nitrogen oxide (NOX), sulfur oxide compound (SOX), suspended particulate matter (PM10), carbon monoxide (CO), non-methane hydrocarbon (NMHC). Among all, the maximum increase re activity of applies is to convert the density of O3 through the density of NMHC.
The study aims at the discussion of the decrement difference of around conformation coupling by the system dynamic method software to put up transportation and reduction initiatives of energy department. In addition, the author tries to calculate that various reduction initiatives which is because of decrements of air pollutants result in health benefits situation by Air Resources Co-Benefits model.
This study shows that the application of system dynamic method software conformity back coupling to estimate the synthesis transportations and the reduction initiatives of the energy department. Moreover, the author tries to use them to estimates Taiwan greenhouse gas and complete and main decrement proportion of the air pollutants. In 2030, if “Modest Policy Commitment Scenario” is applied, the total volume of greenhouse gas will reduce around 20.72 % compares to the withdrawal of BAU 525,164 Gg/a year to be possible to reduce approximately 108,830 Gg/a year. Moreover, compares the withdrawal of BAU, 19,502 Gg/years to be possible to reduce the approximately 4,132 Gg/years, the air pollutants will reducesthe approximately21.18% withdrawal. If “Major Policy Commitment Scenario” is applied, the total volume of greenhouse gas will reduce around 38.49 % compares to the withdrawal of BAU 525,164Gg/a year to be possible to reduce approximately 202,114Gg/a year. Besides, compares the withdrawal of BAU, 19,502 Gg/years to be possible to reduce the approximately 7,673Gg/years, the air pollutants will reduces the approximately39.34% withdrawal. If “Full Implementation Scenario” is applied, the total volume of greenhouse gas will reduce around 59.21 % compares to the withdrawal of BAU 525,164Gg/a year to be possible to reduce approximately 310,944Gg/a year. To compares the withdrawal of BAU, 19,502 Gg/years to be possible to reduce the approximately 11,805Gg/years, the air pollutants will reduces the approximately60.53 % withdrawal. However, considering the costs and social benefits relating Criteria air pollutants and the increase in living years, after all applicable initiatives upon Criteria air pollutants’ density are carried out, citizens in Taiwan could gain78.13 hours of life, with a cost of6.549,283thousand dollars per hour. If discussed various reduction initiatives base on have not back coupling conformity, withdrawal of the greenhouse gas and the main air pollutants will overestimate 143,824 Gg/years and 4,500 Gg/years, was equal in has overestimated
67.13% and 36.89%
This study represents that the technology of present stage and completely execute transportation and decrement of two energy departments. Moreover, the further green science and technology such as fuel cell, solar energy electro-optic and hydrogen will be inducted. These new technologies would be possible to reduce the withdrawal of greenhouse gas and to achieve the goal quickly which is back to the withdrawal of 2000 (2.14 hundred million tons) when country in 2025.
This research represents computed result by synthesizing the relevant data of transportation and every decrement motion of energy department Using LED lamp to replace tradition traffic light, the cost of benefit of applicable initiatives is the highest. Nevertheless, the transportation department would like to carry out applicable initiatives and encourage people to drive a vehicle which mix oil and electricity instead of common gasoline motorcar. Therefore, the cost of applicable initiatives is extremely high, but the benefit is the worse.

並列關鍵字

System dynamics ； Greenhouse gas ； Criteria air pollutants ； ARCoB model ； Social benefits

參考文獻

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