營業秘密、分析師預測與內部人交易關係之研究

The Relation among Trade Secret, Analysts’ Forecast and Insider Trading

李冠樺(Kuan-Huan Li)

指導教授 ： 王維康

元智大學/管理學院/會計學系/碩士(2008年)

摘要

隨著知識經濟的時代來臨，智慧財產成為企業最重要資產，亦為企業保有競爭優勢、持續成長的重要因素。由於知識種類及社會資訊繁多、資訊科技的進步，加速知識之流通、移轉與擴散，傳統的智慧財產權在研究成果的保護上有所不足，使營業秘密的相關議題逐漸受到重視。本研究之研究目的包括探討公司擁有營業秘密的多寡，與分析師跟隨人數、分析師預測共識之關係；探討公司擁有營業秘密的多寡，內部人持股增減之關係；探討營業秘密的多寡，是否影響內線交易與分析師預測的關係？
由於營業秘密資訊難以衡量，故本研究參考Marshall（1890）所提出「序列效用」的概念，嘗試將營業秘密依強度大小排序，排序愈小，營業秘密強度愈低；換言之，排序愈大，營業秘密強度愈高；實證結果顯示：營業秘密會影響證券分析師跟隨人數，當企業的營業秘密數量越多，其資訊不對稱的程度越大，使分析師有較大的誘因預期其盈餘，因此會有較多分析師跟隨。而當營業秘密價值越高，則分析師跟隨人數越少；營業秘密影響分析師預測共識，當企業營業秘密數量越多，分析師之間的預測共識越低；當企業營業秘密價值越高，分析師之間的預測共識越高；營業秘密數量多寡會影響內部人持股的變動，企業的營業秘密數量越多，內部人越有誘因增加手中持股。

關鍵字

營業秘密 ； 序列效用 ； 內部人交易 ； 分析師預測

並列摘要

With the arrival of the knowledge era, intellectual property becomes the most important asset of enterprise. Intellectual property also the important factor of enterprise to maintain the competitive edge and grows up abidingly. Relevant topics on trade secret have be paid attention gradually due to numerous kinds of knowledge and social information, progress of information technology accelerating the transfer of knowledge and spreading, the traditional protection in the research results of intellectual property becoming insufficient. The research purpose of this paper includes：Probe into the relationship between trade secret, analysts coverage and analysts’ forecast consensus；Probe into the relationship between trade secret and change in insiders holding shares；Probe into that whether trade secret influence relationship between the insider trading and analyst forecast?
Because trade secret information is difficult to be directly measured, our research refers the concept of Marshall (1890) "ordinal utility", trying to rank the trade secret depends on it's strength, the arrangement slightly, the trade secret strength will be lower, in other words, the arrangement is bigger, the trade secret strength will be higher. Our results show：Trade secret influences the analyst coverage. When enterprise having more trade secret number, the greater degree of its information asymmetry is, making analysts have greater inducement to forecast, and more analysts will follow however, higher trade secret value represent fewer analyst followed；Trade secret influences the consensus of analysts’ forecast. As enterprise having higher trade secret number, the consensus between the analysts is lower, true earning of enterprises is more difficult to be predicted, however, trade secret value is positive related to analysts’ consensus；Trade secret number will influence insider holding trade shares. When enterprise has more trade secret number, insiders have more inducement to increase shares.

並列關鍵字

Trade Secret ； Ordinal Utility ； Insider Trading ； Analyst Forecast

參考文獻

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