電動車趨勢下影響台灣汽車產業價值鏈移動之關鍵要素

The Key Change Factors of Motor Value Chain under the Tread of Electric Vehicles

陳冠中(Kuan-Chung Chen)

指導教授 ： 陳筱琪 ； 蔡文鈞

中原大學/商學院/企業管理研究所/碩士(2016年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201600747

摘要

減碳政策現階段為世界各國能源政策目標，力圖規劃出兼顧環保與經濟成長的節能減碳的政策。2008年國際能源總署（IEA）推估，2050年全球二氧化碳排放量交會高達2.3倍，而車輛運輸更為二氧化碳排放之大宗，現階段各國皆以法規的制定以及標準的設立，強制規範上市之車型必須符合碳排放標準，但傳統車型整體的二氧化碳排放現況距離未來標準尚有落差。因此，積極研發新能源車輛即成為現今世代刻不容緩的目標，汽車產業也逐漸面臨轉型，以因應新能源車輛的趨勢。我國在傳統車輛整車產業鏈中雖未佔有產業優勢，但在車輛零組件已有相當優秀的產業成果；而在新能源車輛趨勢中，也有進入國際車廠供應鏈之廠商，發展獨特性的優勢。對於前景看好的電動車市場，我國廠商可透過此波電動車發展趨勢下的產業變化，佈局全球新能源車輛市場。

為探討電動車趨勢下產業價值鏈變化方向，本研究以TEMPOL模型作為分析國際價值鏈移動時產業之觀測指標，技術成熟(Technology)、擴張市場(Expansion)、利潤／成本(Profit)、吸引力(Motivation)、變革契機(Opportunity)、和成型價值鏈(Leverage)等六大要素，欲從此探究汽車產業的價值鏈變化方式，再以ANP與DEMATEL方法篩選一系列的變因，找出各項變因間的因果關係與變因之間重要性程度，以深入瞭解汽車產業價值鏈變化方式及關鍵影響因素。

本研究透過產業價值鏈移動模型之TEMPOL產業價值鏈移動模型建立研究架構後，再透過修改後DANP法，篩選出關鍵影響準則進而探討影響電動車趨勢下影響台灣汽車產業價值鏈移動之關鍵要素，發現價值鏈變化之準則中，『製程標準化』、『零組件模組化』、『平均銷售價格下降』為三個最重要之準則。電動車趨勢現況來看，台灣整車廠或零組件廠商規模不若國際汽車大廠，台灣廠商可透過電動車價值鏈中，其他廠商尚未完全掌握之利基技術，持續深化與國際車廠或是國際系統廠商之合作，結合國際車廠合作拓展價值鏈，讓台灣在於全球電動車價值鏈中成為關鍵組件供應夥伴。

關鍵字

電動車 ； 價值鏈 ； TEMPOL模型 ； 決策實驗室分析法 ； 網路分析程序法

並列摘要

For most countries in the world, Carbon reduction policy is ultimate goal of energy policy. The countries endeavored to formulate a carbon reduction policy, and looked highly upon the policy can stable the condition of environment and economic. International Energy Agency (IEA) estimate the carbon emission will increase around two times in 2005, and the vehicle exhaust will be the main cause of carbon emission.
Nowadays, the countries set up the policy and standard to regulate every car in marketing must follow the standard of carbon emission. However, the traditional car is hard to follow the policy because of its construction; therefore, developing a new electric vehicle is the most important goal to achieve. With the trend of developing the electric vehicle, the car industry must transform itself. Even though Taiwan does not have striking advantage in traditional car marketing, Taiwan outstands in the development of car parts. In the trend of electric vehicle, Taiwanese car companies show their uniqueness in the international market. Because of the brightest future of the electric car market, Taiwanese companies can use this advantage to gain the market share of electric vehicle.
To explore the industrial value chain of electric vehicle in the changing market, the study used TEMPOL model as observable indicator to analyze the international industrial value chain which includes six factors: technology, expansion, profit, motivation, opportunity and leverage. In order to investigate the change of industrial value chain, the study used the ANP and DEMATEL to distinguish the relationship of variables. The aim of the study is to investigate the industrial value chain of car industry and the related key factors.
The study applied the TEMPOL model and industrial value chain migration to construct the research structure. The DANP is used to search out the key criteria which is effective to the Taiwanese car industrial chain of electric vehicle trend. The results show that “Process standardization”,” Modular” and “The average price decrease” are the three most important criteria. Based on the hybrid car trend in current market value, the distribution of Taiwanese depots is not greater than international depots; however, the Taiwanese depots can use their own technique as advantage to improve the market value or to work with the international system company. With cooperation of Taiwan and international depots, the Taiwanese depots can be the key supplier of the hybrid car trend of the world.

並列關鍵字

Electric Vehicle ； Value Chain ； TEMPOL Model ； DEMATEL ； ANP

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