總體經濟變數對台灣博物館參觀人數之影響

本研究的目的在於探討台灣15家博物館參觀人數與國內總體經濟變數間的關係，在Skinner et al.先前文獻中認為美國的博物館參觀人數與美國總體經濟變數國民所得間的關係為負向，也就是博物館參觀的所得需求彈性為負。本研究藉由季節調整、單根檢定等方法使時間序列資料定態，再以最小平方法估計總體經濟變數與博物館參觀人數間的關係。與先期文獻不同的是本文除了解釋變數實質GDP外，在模型變數中增加總體經濟變數實質貨幣總數、失業率與每月平均超時工作時間來探討景氣循環，另外加入總體經濟變數之波動性，探討總體經濟變數之變動大小對博物館參觀人數之關係，最後將博物館分為美術館、歷史博物館與自然科學博物館探討不同分類的博物館與總體經濟變數間之關係，實證結果發現總體經濟變數對歷史博物館與自然科學博物館的影響較大，而對美術館影響較小。

關鍵字

博物館參觀人數；實質GDP ；實質貨幣總數；失業率；超時工作時間；波動性

並列摘要

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between Taiwan's 15 museums and the macroeconomic fluctuation in Taiwan. Skinner et al.(2009) in the previous literature point that the relationship between income and visitors to the American museum of the American people is negative. That is, income elasticity of museum demand is negative. This study by seasonal adjustment and unit root test to make time series data steady, then using ordinary least squares to estimate the relationship between macroeconomic fluctuation and the museum visitors in Taiwan. Different from previous literature, this study using real GDP per capita ,real monetary aggregates M1b, unemployment rate as well as average monthly overtime hours worked per capita to investigate the business cycle. Using the macroeconomic fluctuation`s volatility to estimate the macroeconomic fluctuation variance`s change. Finally, dividing the museum into art museum, history museum and natural science museum to explore the relationship between the macroeconomic fluctuation. Empirical results show that the macroeconomic fluctuation are more influential on history museum and natural science museum than art museum.