臺灣長期最適發電配比規劃之研究 - 應用資產組合理論

The Study of Long-run Optimal Electricity Portfolio Planning in Taiwan: Apply Portfolio Theory

李冠晨(Kuan-Chen Lee)

指導教授 ： 李堅明

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/自然資源與環境管理研究所/碩士(2015年)

摘要

傳統財務管理的資產組合理論 (portfolio theory)，已被廣泛應用於發電組合規劃。然而，資產組合理論僅考量報酬率與風險兩項因素，針對電力組合的多元目標，存在應用上的限制。世界永續發展高峰會 (World Summit on Sustainable Development, WSSD, 2002) 指出，具備永續發展的電力供應系統應符合：可靠性、可負擔性、經濟可行性、環境友善性及社會可接受性等五大準則。我國於2008年及2011年分別制定「永續能源政策綱要」及「新能源政策」，並提出國家電力組合發展規劃，然而，政策規劃是否符合永續電力組合？值得進一步討論，亦構成本研究的主要目的。爰此，本研究將參考歐盟資產組合理論電力配比規劃方法 (Awerbuch and Spencer , 2007)，利用最適控制模型 (optimal control model) 規劃2050年發電配比之參考。
結果顯示，分析未來長期之最適發電配比，推估2020年至2050年之平均發電成本為逐漸上升的趨勢，由1.81元/度升至2.77元/度。發電配比方面，再生能源逐年增加，反之，燃煤發電為下降趨勢，燃油發電、燃氣發電與抽蓄水力之發電占比變動不大。碳排量方面，於2030年為最高點(118.66百萬噸)，雖然發電量逐年上升，發電排放係數歷年呈現下降趨勢，至2050年發電係數為最低值。另，發電系統期望風險在2020年與2050年都達到合理風險。未來在符合發電安全、減碳目標與合理風險之下，再生能源發電為主要的發電技術。

關鍵字

隨機模型 ； 永續發電原則 ； 資產組合理論 ； 發電配比

並列摘要

The portfolio theory is commonly applied on electricity portfolio planning. However, it has its limitation for just considering two elements (return and risk). World Summit Sustainable Development WSSD (2002) provided a conceptual idea for sustained electricity generating, which includes five criterias: reliability, economic feasibility, affordability, environmental friendly and social acceptability. The Taiwanese government established an electricity portfolio for 2025 through the use of “Sustainable Development Policy Guidance” (2008) and “New Energy Policy” (2011) respectively. However, has that portfolio satisfied the idea of sustainable electricity portfolio? This study will apply portfolio theory as well as optimal control methodology to provide optimal electricity mix by 2050.
The result shows an annual average cost of electricity will increase from 1.81 NT/kWh to 2.77 NT/kWh for the period 2020 to 2050. In terms of the electricity portfolio, renewable energy rate will have been increasing annually; whereas, coal-fired power generation declines with little change in the electricity portfolio of oil-fired power generation, natural gas-fired power generation and pumped hydro power. With respect to carbon emissions, the highest point of emissing will be in 2030 (122.69 million tons). Although electricity generation increases annually, the electricity emission factors goes down to 2050 being the lowest. Moreover, electricity generating expected risk can be reduced reasonably in 2020 to 2050. To achieve the goal of electricity security, carbon reduction and reasonable risks, renewable energy will be the main power generation technologies in the future.

並列關鍵字

Energy Security ； Optimal control ； Portfolio theory ； Electricity mix

參考文獻

行政院環境保護署（2013），《我國低碳永續家園推動策略》，行政院環境保護署。

Awerbuch S. and M. Berger (2003), “Applying Portfolio Theory to EU Electricity Planning and Policy-Making,” IEA/EET Working Paper, Paris: International Energy Agency.

Awerbuch S. and Y. Spencer (2007), “Efficient Electricity Generating Portfolios for Europe: Maximizing Energy Security and Climate Change Mitigation,” EIB Papers, 12, 8-37.

Chen F. F., S. C. Chou and T. K. Lu (2013), “Scenario Analysis of the New Energy Policy for Taiwan's Electricity Sector until 2025,” Energy Policy, 61, 162-171.

International Energy Agency (2014), “World Energy Outlook 2014,” Paris, Cedex: International Energy Agency.