中日台韓出口貿易交互效果的實證分析

An Empirical Analysis of China, Japan and Taiwan South Korea export trade interaction effect

孫榮章(chung-jung sun)

指導教授 ： 楊志海 ； 鄒孟文

國立中央大學/管理學院/產業經濟研究所碩士在職專班/碩士(2014年)

摘要

台灣、韓國與日本對中國的對外投資當多，但近年來在出口貿易觀察中，逐漸由互補呈現替代的關係。可能原因在於四國之間產品層次上存有差異。因此，各國的出口是否對彼此的貿易存在影響。若有，關係為替代或互補？本文將以引力模型估計2002~2012年間，中日台韓四國出口至歐美、東南亞等３６國家的貿易量，是否會受到四國間貿易的相互影響，而導致國家出口有顯著的增加或減少。
本研究根據McCallum(1995)引力模型為基礎，修正變數後實證估計結果顯示: 台灣在出口方面與日本、韓國及中國呈現互補現象，而日本則與台灣、韓國出口互補，韓國則只有與日本有較顯著的出口互補關係。反觀，中國大陸的出口與日本呈現替代關係，與台灣則呈現互補狀態。由上述四國出口變數顯示國與國間並無明顯的出口排擠現象，因此再估計四國匯率是否會帶來影響。結果顯示日幣的貶值對於台灣與中國大陸有顯著負向影響，與韓國匯率為跨期正向相關；韓國貶值則與台灣出口當期負向影響但結果並不顯著；台幣部分則與日本出口呈現正向關係；最後人民幣匯率的波動與日本出口呈現負向顯著相關，但與台灣出口不顯著。

關鍵字

引力模型 ； 出口貿易 ； 匯率

並列摘要

There are much investment in Taiwan, Korea and Japan Foreign investment to China , but in recent years , their relationship are gradually replaced from complementary to alternative in the observation of the export trades. It is likely that there exists the difference in product level among four countries and export on four countries brings impact on one another. What
"are" their relationship, alternative or complementary? What is their relationship, alternative or complementary? This purpose of this study aims to discuss related factors on exports including China, Korea, Japan and Taiwan, which trade in Europe, America, Southeast Asia and other 36 countries between 2002 and 2012 on the basis of the gravity model. It will interact between the four countries trade, which led to the country's exports having significantly increase or decrease.

The study is based on McCallum’s gravity model and the empirical studies after variable modification have shown that the relationship among Japan, Korea, and China are complementary in terms of export in Taiwan. However, Japan only shows significant complementary relationship between Taiwan and Korea while Korea only shows significant complementary relationship on Japan. The relationship between Mainland China and Japan is substitute but between Mainland China and Taiwan is complementary in terms of export. From above statistics, there is no significant crowding-out effect on export among four nations and thus the factors of foreign exchange among four nations are taken into account. The results have shown that the depreciation of the yen has significant negative influence on Taiwan and Mainland China but has temporal positive correlation on exchange rate in Korea. Instead, the relationship between depreciation of the won and current negative influence in terms of export in Taiwan is not notable. An obvious positive relationship exists in New Taiwan Dollar and export in Japan. Finally, the fluctuation of the exchange rate of Renminbi shows significant negative correlation but does not in Taiwan in terms of export.

並列關鍵字

Gravity model ； Export trade ； Exchange

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