應用模糊多目標規劃法於離岸風力場之維修決策與規劃

本研究探討離岸風力系統的不確定因素，包括參數與目標函數具模糊性，利用模糊多目標線性規劃與可能線性規劃法，來建構一個新的離岸風力系統的維修決策模式，模式中同時考量風場總維護成本最小化與風場總平均可靠度最大化兩個模糊目標，並以線性隸屬函數來表示模糊目標值，模糊參數中相關的維護成本採用三角可能性分配來表示，可靠度則採用Weibull分配來表示。該模式也加入實際維修作業的相關限制，包括定期維修、採購零件、零件可靠度等。本研究也提出一個二階段互動式可能性規劃的決策程序，提供決策者獲得一組有效的滿意解，再以一個離岸風場為例進行模式測試，來驗證本研究提出的模式具實用性與適用性。最後，針對模式中重要的決策參數進行敏感度分析，研究結果可有效地協助運維商決定最適維修決策與規劃行程，以滿足低碳經濟的發展終旨。

關鍵字

離岸風力場；維修決策；模糊多目標線性規劃法；互動式二階段方法；低碳經濟

並列摘要

This study discusses the uncertain nature of the offshore wind farm for the parameters and objective functions. This nature uses a fuzzy multi-objective linear programming (FMOLP) method and possibilistic linear programming approach for developing a novel maintenance decision model in a fuzzy environment. The proposed model aims to simultaneously minimize total maintenance costs and maximize total system reliability with the linear membership for the offshore wind farm. The maintenance cost associated with the fuzzy parameters is represented by triangular distribution, and the reliability is represented by the Weibull distribution. This model also incorporates constraints related to actual maintenance operations, including normal maintenance and component reliability. This study proposes an interactive two-phase method, which provides decision-makers with a set of effective and satisfactory solutions, and then takes an offshore wind farm as an example to test the model in order to verify the practicability and applicability. Sensitivity analysis is also carried out for the important decision parameters in the model. The analytical results presented in this study will effectively assist the operation and maintenance company to evaluate the optimal maintenance decision and achieve the ultimate goal of low-carbon economy development.