研究台灣廢棄物-經濟-產業之間的鏈結:以廢塑膠為例

垃圾物理組成之主要成分為廚餘、廢紙、廢塑膠。塑膠對於大眾來說是生活上密不可分的物質，塑膠垃圾也是人類帶給環境最大的問題之一。目前台灣多座垃圾焚化廠陸續已達使用年限，進入屆齡的焚化爐導致垃圾焚化量下降，且塑膠本是不適燃廢棄物，但我國掩埋場可掩埋容積已不到總掩埋容積的10%，加上新掩埋場新建不易，不論是未經焚化的垃圾，或是焚化處理後的灰渣，要找到掩埋空間都實屬不易。因此本研究團隊認為相較於九成回收率的事業廢棄物與農業廢棄物，只有六成左右回收率的“生活垃圾”應該是循環經濟投注之重點。本研究團隊於2017年起致力研究循環設計與經濟模型，利用能源密集度指標發展出可操作性都市固體廢棄物之物理組成成份指標定義，可用於解釋公共政策的有效性和產業發展對於廢棄物之鏈結性。過去本團隊研究成果已發現廚餘產量與觀光發展之間有高度鏈結性，廢紙產量則與零售業有高度鏈結性。本研究將著重於廢塑膠方面，透過環保署統計年報中生活垃圾與資源回收部份，訂定出台灣垃圾中的廢塑膠密集度指標，發現台灣廢塑膠呈現庫茲涅茲曲線(EKC)之現象。且透過政府限塑政策、工商業轉變與年齡人口階層轉變等歷史事件，嘗試以事件的觀點來解釋台灣廢塑膠總量EKC各階段趨勢變化。研究結果發現台灣廢塑膠密集度於1997年開始變與經濟成長呈脫鉤關係，且發現政府環境政策對於廢塑膠總量EKC並不具有拘束性。且由年齡人口階層推斷，廢塑膠總量EKC是以工作年齡人口(15歲至64歲)為主要貢獻來源。並利用1950年至1980年歷史事件，推測我國廢塑膠總量與產業和人口的成因關係，與透過經濟循環週期之概念，發現我國廢塑膠EKC週期橫跨約100年之久。

關鍵字

循環經濟；廢塑膠；環境庫茲涅茲曲線；都市固體廢棄物

並列摘要

The main components of the physical composition of waste are garbage, waste paper, and waste plastic. Plastic is an inseparable substance in life for the public, and plastic waste is also one of the biggest problems that humans bring to the environment. At present, many municipal solid waste incineration plants in Taiwan have reached their useful lives one after another. The incinerators entering the old age lead to a decrease in the amount of waste incineration. Moreover, plastics are originally noncombustible wastes. But the bury able volume of landfills in Taiwan is less than 10% of the total landfill volume. In addition, it is not easy to build new landfills and to create landfill space whether for the fresh municipal solid waste or incinerated residual ashes. Therefore, we believe that compared with the 90% recycling rate of industrial waste and agricultural waste, only about 60% recycling rate of "municipal solid waste" should be the focus of circular economy investment. we have worked on circular design and economic models since 2017, using the energy intensity index to develop an indexed definition of the physical composition of operable MSW, which can be used to explain the effectiveness of public policies and the impact of industrial development on waste link-ability. Past research results of us have found that there is a high degree of linkage between food waste production and tourism development; and waste paper production is highly linked to the retail industry. This study has focused on waste plastics, through the municipal solid waste and resource recycling section of the Taiwan Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) annual statistical data, we have determined the intensity of waste plastics in Taiwan. Through historical events such as the government's plastic restriction policy, industrial and commercial changes, and age and demographic transitions, the author of this thesis has tried to explain the trends of Taiwan's total waste plastic EKC at various stages from the point of view of events. The results have showed that Taiwan's waste plastic intensity began to decouple from economic growth since 1997, and the government environmental policies are not binding on the total waste plastic EKC. The impact on the total amount of plastic waste EKC is mainly related to the industrial production volume index of the textile industry and the industrial production volume index for the synthetic resin and plastic manufacturing. And it is inferred from the age population class that the total amount of waste plastic EKC in the main source of contribution from the working-age population (15 to 64 years old). Using the historical events from 1950 to 1980 to speculate on the relationship between the total amount of waste plastics in Taiwan and the industry and population, and through the concept of economic cycle, results have found that the EKC swing of waste plastics in Taiwan might span about 100 years.