台灣觀光產業發展趨勢預測與因應策略之研究

近年來，旅遊產業成長迅速，根據2017年的世界經濟論壇報告顯示，全球旅遊產值已經佔總體經濟產值的10%，全球國際觀光旅遊人次呈現成長的趨勢。反觀台灣在2017年的世界經濟論壇報告中顯示，台灣旅遊產值只佔了台灣總體經濟GDP的1.8%，仍是屬於低成長的國家。因此如何推廣國人的國際出國旅遊人次及外國人來台觀光人次，為臺灣旅遊產業之重要課題。由於臺灣旅行業者的生存條件日趨競爭與嚴峻，旅行業者的因應策略勢必須做出符合市場經濟的趨勢，以確保旅行業者的長期生存競爭條件。世界觀光旅遊委員會在2016年的研究報告中顯示，從2016年到2026年十年間在東協的新加坡、泰國、越南、印度尼西亞及馬來西亞等五個國家，在東協觀光旅遊投資支出將佔95%的主導地位，是未來可以發展的重要地區。因此本研究依據國內觀光局的官方資料，應用灰色系統理論中的預測模型做為研究方法，針對全球五大洲及東協中的五個國家，進行國人出國觀光及來台觀光的人次預測，並且驗證模型的適用性。接著再對2019年及2020年進行此五國及全球五大洲的未來國人出國觀光及來台觀光的人次趨勢預測，並針對所預測的國人出國觀光及來台觀光的人次成長趨勢，提出有助旅行業者未來競爭能量提升的產業策略建議，以作為經營發展依據。

關鍵字

觀光產業；灰色系統理論；預測；策略

並列摘要

The traveling and tourism industry has been rapidly growing over the past few years. According to the report released by the World Economic Forum, direct and total contribution of travel and tourism to the global economy reached a high of 10% in 2017. The number of global tourists has been on the increase, too. According to WEF, total contribution of tourism to Taiwan’s GDP, however, gained a humble 1.8%. Obviously, Taiwan’s traveling and tourism industry remains under-developed. Therefore, promoting Taiwanese willingness for international tourism has become one of the most important issues facing the Taiwanese tour industry. With severe survival conditions and keener competition, Taiwanese tour businesses must employ strategies to meet market needs, only by doing so can the sustainable management of the tour industry be secured. According to World Travel and Tourism Council, five nations of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia)will pour 95% of their total investment on tourism as the leading economic sector from year 2016 to year 2026. These nations will witness tremendous growth in tourism. The study, which refers to the official data that provided by the Taiwan’s Tourism Bureau, and use GM(1,1) model in grey system theory as the mathematics method, to predict the number of outbound and inbound of five continents and five nations. After the data had got, the study also based on the characteristic of GM(1,1) model, to predict the next two years (2019 and 2020) outbound and inbound of five continents and five nations, to verify the rationality of the mathematical model. Based on the finding of the results, it can propose an industrial management strategy framework to enhance the future competitive energy of travel operators.