- 期刊
2001年大陸情勢特點及其未來發展動向
The Features of the Present Situation in Mainland China in 2001 and the Trend of Its Future Development
摘要
回顧2001年中國大陸情勢發展的特點，政治上雖呈現相對平穩的局面，但隨著中共「十六大」召開腳開的接近，其內部權力卡位之爭已全面展開，意識形態亦因企業家入黨政策而出現分歧；經濟上在全球普遍不景氣情況下仍取得高成長，但已出現放緩跡象，有效需求不足、經濟結構不合理、就業壓力加大及農民收入增長減緩等問題依舊；在社會方面仍面臨諸多不穩定的因素，尤其以治安問題及社會失序較為突出；外交上充分利用「911事件」改善與美關系，并藉舉辦一系列國際會議凸顯其大國地位；在兩岸關系上，仍繼續維持以「聯合在野，反獨制陳」為主調，擴大在海外進行「反獨促統」活動，以鞏固其「一個中國」政策，而對陳水扁總統提出的「四不一沒有」、「統全論」等善意構想冷處理，兩岸關系仍未獲突破。 展望未來一年，中共面對「十六大」的召開與加入WTO的衝擊，將以「維穩防亂」為其工作主軸。因此，「十六大」召開前中共對臺政策將不致於做大幅度的調整，而兩岸目前的冷和格局亦難有重大的改變。兩岸若能積極展現善意，暫時擱置重大爭議，為建立共識創造條件，方有可能共同營造出雙贏的局面。
並列摘要
Retracing the 2001 fingerprints of the situation development in China, while its political situation remaining relatively smooth, the internal power struggle has been completely initiated with the approaching of the ”Shi-Liou Da (the 16th party congress)”. Meanwhile, the ideology has also been differentiated by the policy of the entrepreneurs entering the Party. With the economic phase, high growth remains in China in the midst of the universal depression. However, an indication of slowing down is shown. Other problems such as the inadequate of effective demand, unreasonable economic structure, heavy pressure of obtaining employment and the slowing down of the farmers' income growth remain. These problems being operatively controlled though, many unstable factors are to be faced. Among them, the crime problem and the disorder in the society are the most protruding. Diplomatically, China has fully utilized the ”911 event” to modify the relationship with US, and raised its position as a great power by holding a series of international conferences. With the Cross-Strait relations, China remains its ”uniting the non-DPPs, restricting Chen-Suei-Bian, and opposition of Taiwan independence” standing, and magnify its overseas activities of ”independence opposition and unification improvement” to consolidate the ”One China” policy. At the same time, China coldly copes with Chen's ideas of good will such as ”5-nos” and ”intergration”. Therefore there has been on breakthrough between the Strait. Looking forward in the coming year, PRC facing the ”Shi-Liou-Da” and the impact of accession to WTO, will need to take ”holding stability and prevent disorder” as its main task. Therefore PRC shall not make any big adjustment of its policy toward Taiwan before the ”Shi-Liou-Da”, which indicates no significant change with the present cross-Strait ”cold stable situation”. It will be a great benefit to all the Chinese people if the two sides keep positively showing good intentions and temporarily table serious conditions for reconciliation.