中國大陸人口老化之空間分析

中國自2000年進入老齡化社會後，人口老化現象受到各界重視，本文以2000年第五次人口普查資料為主體，觀察空間單位為中國340個地級市，應用空間分析方法探究人口老化區域差異現象，試圖尋找造成中國人口老化地區差異之關鍵因素。本文藉由Moran’s I指標發現中國人口老化出現空間自相關的現象，人口高度老化地區集中東部沿海一帶，聚集程度由城市向外圍逐漸減弱。本文將變數分為五個類型，其中，人口結構作為中介變項；族群文化、經濟結構、社會結構、公共衛生四個面向變數為背景變項。迴歸模型結果發現，人口結構變數中，生育與遷入的提高確實緩和人口老化；人口老化程度地區差異導因於各地經濟發展程度不均，中國地級市呈現「愈富愈老」現象。少數民族人口年齡結構年輕化是由於公共衛生及經社結構的落後，若其居住環境有所改善，人口老化並不會亞於漢族。家庭結構與人口老化呈現負相關，公共衛生環境的改善則提高人口老化程度。

關鍵字

人口老化；老化指數；區域差異；空間分析

並列摘要

China has become an aging population country since 2000, and it is widely noticed by lots of demographers. This paper used the fifth census data of China as the main body and prefecture level city as the object of the research. The author applied spatial analysis to discuss the variation of aging population, trying to find out the main reason that results in the difference of aging population in China. By the index of Moran’s I, the author discovered the spatial autocorrelation of aging population is gathering in the east coast of China. It also shows that the level of clusters of aging population decreases from urban area to rural area. This paper divided the variables into five different types, demographic structure, race, economic structure, social structure, public health. It was found that the rise of the Total fertility rate and immigration rate indeed moderate the proportion of the elderly, and the reason for regional differences of aging population is the disparity between rich and poor. The population of ethnic minority is rejuvenated because the development of socio-economic structure and public health is lagging behind. The size of families and aging population show the negative correlation, and the improvement of public health environment aggravates the proportion of the elderly.