少子化成因之探討

台灣生育率低迷的問題存在已久，造成國人不願生育下一代的原因眾多，可能是文化思想觀念的改變，也可能經濟環境的因素，過去部份研究多係以社會學的角度來分析研究少子化問題，本文則嘗試以房價及女性的經常性薪資、女性教育程度及女性失業率等女性條件的角度來探討少子化的問題，並以台灣五大城市為例，分析五大主要城市出生率與上開變數之因果關係，研究結果發現出生率與上開變數均存在長期穩定的均衡關係，且部分城市之房價、女性經常性薪資、女性教育程度，確實領先影響著出生率。最後綜合五大都市之資料並加入實質國內生產毛額成長率資料，以追蹤資料模型進行分析，得到所有變數與出生率皆呈顯著之反應，即所有變數皆影響著出生率。

關鍵字

少子化；房價；女性；時間序列；共整合；因果關係；追蹤資料模型

並列摘要

The problem of low fertility rate in Taiwan has existed for a long time, causing many reasons why people are unwilling to give birth to the next generation. It may be a change in cultural and concepts, and may also be a factor in the economic environment. Some studies in the past have been analyzed from the perspective of sociology. To solve the problem of declining birthrate, this paper attempts to explore the issue of declining birthrate in terms of housing prices and female regular salary, female education level and female unemployment rate. The five major cities in Taiwan are used as examples to analyze the birth rate of the five major cities. The causal relationship between the variables and the study found that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the birth rate and the upper variables, and the housing prices of some cities, the female regular salary, and the level of female education do lead the birth rate. Finally, the data of the five major cities were integrated and the gross growth rate of domestic production was added. The data model was became the panel date model. All variables and birth rate showed significant responses, that is, all variables affected the birth rate.