理性自利或感性認同？影響台灣民眾兩岸經貿立場因素的分析

Interest-Driven or Identity-Based? An Analysis of Taiwanese People's Positions on Cross-Strait Economic Exchanges

陳陸輝(Lu-Huei Chen) ； 耿曙(Shu Keng) ； 涂萍蘭(Ping-Lan Tu) ； 黃冠博(Kuan-Bo Huang)

《東吳政治學報》 27卷2期 (2009/06) Pp. 87-125

https://doi.org/10.6418/SJPS.200906.0087

摘要

兩岸自1999年「兩國論」後，官方接觸幾陷停頓，民間交流卻持續熱絡，呈現「政治疏離、經貿統合」的格局。由於一般學界認為，兩岸經貿若持續擴張，終將波及兩岸關係，而台灣對兩岸經貿能否予以，最終繫於台灣的民意走勢。因此，台灣民眾對於兩岸經貿看法為何？受何種因素所支配影響？勢將成為前瞻兩岸未來至關重要之議題。有鑒於此，本文運用2006年10月的電話訪問資料，從民眾的「理性自利」及「感性認同」層面切入，探討台灣民眾兩岸經貿立場之原由。根據上述架構，作者對於「理性」層面的檢測，主要考量「個人競爭優勢」、「所處區域」及「自評利益」（自我評估的預期利益衝擊）。有關「感性」層面則過濾民眾的「省籍背景」、「政治認同」、「政黨認同」、「台灣意識」等多項因素。資料檢測的結果發現，理性層面及感性層面因素均具有一定的影響，但針對上述資料展開的次一輪分析卻顯示，看似左右民眾理性抉擇的「自評利益」，實際上卻為根深蒂固的政治認同所型塑。換言之，由於認同的制約，對部份台灣民眾而言，兩岸經貿實際上是「與對手貿易」，而對其贊成與否的關鍵，便不在獲利大小，而在於敵意多少。

關鍵字

兩岸關係 ； 經貿交流 ； 整合理論 ； 象徵政治 ； 理性抉擇

並列摘要

This study aims to examine two competing hypotheses in explaining Taiwan citizens' positions on its economic relations with China. Theorists of rational choice maintain that individuals' stands on various issues are primarily governed by the perceived costs and benefits of possible policy outcomes. As individuals tend to minimize the associated costs and maximize related benefits, ”self-interest” is thought to be a major determinant of citizens' attitudes on various policies. On the other hand, ”symbolic politics” analysis contends that as individuals develop various personal attachments in the form of party identification, ideological orientations, and ethnic or national identity, they respond to issues according to these attachments on the basis of cognitive consistency. Utilizing survey data collected in Taiwan, the analysis of the island citizens' preferences on cross-Strait

並列關鍵字

cross-Strait relations ； economic exchanges ； integration theory ； symbolic politics ； rational choice

參考文獻

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