軍事威脅型態、國家經濟能力與國防預算 －冷戰前後之比較研究

Military threat,economic capability and defence budget －A comparison study Before and after Cold War－

楊育誠(Tu-Cheng Yang)

指導教授 ： 劉立倫

中原大學/商學院/會計學系/碩士(2008年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200800274

摘要

1991年蘇聯解體(即冷戰對立結束)，國際情勢似乎進入承平時代，世界各國是否會因此減低其國防預算呢？此為一值得深入探討的議題。另許多研究已證實國家經濟能力與國防預算的關係。然而依照預算制度的精神，國防預算規模應以軍事威脅型態為前提下依國家經濟能力納入考量編列。基此，本研究嘗試將嘗試釐清冷戰對立、軍事威脅型態、國家經濟能力與國防預算間的關係。研究中採用比較平均數法之獨立、成對樣本T檢定與階層迴歸方法，依序將軍事威脅型態、國家經濟能力納入國防預算模式作為解釋變項。經由145個國家1981到2006年間資料的檢定，研究結果顯示：（1）緊臨前蘇聯的國家於冷戰前、後時期其國防預算並無明顯之差異；（2）無論冷戰前、後時期威脅來自海上的國家其國防預算需求會皆高於威脅來自陸上的國家，軍事威脅型態是國防預算規模的首要考量因素；（3）海權國家平均國民個人所得Per_Capital為陸權國家平均國民個人所得Per_Capital的2.13倍，亦即海權國家的國家經濟能力較陸權國家強（4）軍事威脅型態和國家經濟能力均會個別的、且同時的影響國防預算，且國防預算也受兩者互動效果的影響。此實證結果也指出國家經濟能力對軍事威脅型態有強大的正向干擾，致使軍事威脅型態對國防預算的解釋力無法突顯。此外也依研究結果提出一些建議，作為未來類似研究的參考。

關鍵字

軍事威脅型態 ； 階層迴歸 ； 國家經濟能力 ； 國防預算 ； 冷戰

並列摘要

1991 breakup of the Soviet Union (that is the end of the Cold War confrontation), the international situation seems to be entering the era Chengping, the world will therefore reduce the defense budget is ？ This is a topic worthy of in-depth study. Another many studies have documented that economic strength of a state impacts its size of defense. However, in accordance with the spirit of the budget system, the defense budget should be to scale military threat for the premise according to the economic capacity into account provision. Based on this, this study will attempt to clarify the Cold War confrontation and the military threat, the economic capabilities and the relationship between the defense budget. Study compared the use of the average of independent, paired samples T-test method and Hierarchical Regression, then the threat of military type, the economic capacity in the defense budget as a model to explain variable. By 145 countries from 1981 to 2006 years of test data, study results showed that: (1) close to the former Soviet Union countries in the Cold War before and after the period of its defense budget, there is no obvious difference (2) whether the Cold War before and after the period of threat Sea from the country of its national defense budget were higher than the demand for land from the threat of the country, military threat to the national defense budget is the type size of the primary considerations, (3) the right to national per capita personal income landing rights for national per capita personal income of 2.13 times, which is the country's right to national economic capacity than land and the right country is strong (4) military threat and economic capacity will be individual, and also the impact of the defense budget and national defense budget by two interactive Effect of. The empirical results also pointed out that the economic capabilities of the military threat have a strong positive interference, resulting in patterns of the military threat the interpretation of the defense budget can not be highlighted. Also, according to the findings put forward some suggestions for future reference for similar studies.

並列關鍵字

the Cold War ； Defence Budget ； Economic Capability ； Military Threat ； Hierarchical Regression

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