再訪「台灣芬蘭化」問題兩岸「和解政策」可否確保未來台灣安全？

「芬蘭化」一詞源於1948年芬蘭與蘇聯之協定：「意指小國在其對外行為上，主動將大國之國家利益納入考量，不做出有害大國利益之事，從而交換大國對其獨立性與自主性的承諾」。芬蘭數百年來遭其強鄰俄羅斯的欺凌併吞的血淚，能夠不被併吞的關鍵，除了「蘇芬戰爭及後續戰爭」中，讓蘇聯付出嚴重的人員傷亡及巨大裝備耗損的慘痛教訓外，也讓蘇聯「史達林」強烈震懾與感受到，芬蘭堅韌不拔的民族性與不屈不擾的抗敵意志。惟「冷戰期間」在政治上對蘇聯極盡屈服隱忍，「自我限制、自我審查、自我克制」，以換取兩國的和平共存。瞭解芬蘭的歷史過往，從初期、中期、晚期迄建國，透過其國家艱辛的成展忍讓鄰和互利過程，探討出小國如何艱辛血淚的走出自己的安全之路。然「台灣芬蘭化」是否真正符合台灣人民安全與民主自由體制或僅是季禮及一小撮棄台論者，為能使美國能於兩岸問題中全身而退，避免美中之間發生兵戎相向；另一方面又不致使台灣落入中國手中，以符合美國國家利益的權宜之計。並說服亞洲其他國家闡明美國不是以犧牲台灣利益來尋求與中國建立更密切關係的手段。綜合上述所言，台灣無論是種族、語言、地理環境或是面臨周邊強鄰國家的情境，皆與「芬蘭」有相似之處。然台灣在地理位置及國際地位上，皆處於國際間灰色地帶的情況下；外有中國政治無情打壓、文攻武嚇及國際孤立圍堵政策，內有新冠疫情肆虐、族群對立與國內政情紛擾的隱憂。惟面對強鄰，我們自己若能調整出屬於自己國家堅定立場與的睿智策略選擇。如此不僅能達到永續生存發展之目標，亦能與世界各民主自由國家接軌，共榮共存願景，走出台灣生存之道。

關鍵字

芬蘭化；蘇芬戰爭及繼續戰爭；國際孤立圍堵政策；國際間灰色地帶

並列摘要

The term "Finnishization" originated from the agreement between Finland and the Soviet Union in 1948 : It means that a small country takes the initiative to take into account the national interests of the big power in its foreign behavior , and does not do anything harmful to the interests of the big power, so as to exchange the large power for its commitment to Independence and Autonomy .The blood and tea ars of Finland being bullied and annexed by its strong neighbor Russia for hundreds of years are the key to not being annexed , except in the "Soviet-Finnish War and subsequent wars" which made the Soviet Union pay a lot.In addition to the painful lessons of casualties and huge equipment loss , the Soviet "Stalin" was strongly shocked and felt by Finland's indomitable national character and unyielding will to resist the enemy. In addition, during the "Cold War", they surrendered to the Soviet Union to theextreme politically,"self-limitation, self-censorship,and selfrestraint" in exchange fo r the peaceful coexistence of the two countries.Learn about Finland's historical past , from the early, middle, and late stages to the founding of the country. Through the country's arduous process of forbearance, tolerance and mutual benefit, it explores how a small country has worked hard to find its own way to safety. However, whether the "Finnishization of Taiwan" is truly in line with Taiwan's people's security and democratic and free system, or is it just Ji Li and a handful of those who abandon Taiwan? See; on the other hand, it is an expedient measure that serves the interests of the United States without causing Taiwan to fall into the hands of China.and persuade the rest of Asia to clarify that the United States is not seeking closer ties with China at the expense of Taiwan. means of cutting relationships. To sum up the above, Taiwan has similarities with "Finland" in terms of race,language,geographical environment, or the situation of facing neighboring countries.However, both in terms of geographical location and international status, Taiwan is in an international gray area; externally, there are China’s ruthless political suppression, civil attack and military intimidation, and international isolation and containment policies; internally,there are the raging new crown epidemic, ethnic confrontation , and domestic political conditions. troubled worries.In the face of strong neighbors, if we can adjust our own country's firm position and wise strategic choices. In this way, we can not only achieve the goal of sustainable survival and development, but also integrate with other countries in the world , achieve the vision of co-prosperity and coexistence, and walk out of Taiwan's way of survival.