出口依賴中國大陸會讓台灣邊緣化嗎？

本文探討一個周邊「小國」對一個成長中的大型經濟體提高出口依賴，是否會造成「邊緣化」的問題。將「邊緣化」定義成相對所得比例的下降後，觀察歐洲外緣14個國家對核心6國，以及美洲2個國家對美國核心出口集中度變化和對核心區域的相對所得比例趨勢，無法支持「提高對成長的大型核心區域出口依賴會造成邊緣化」的假說。繼續觀察香港和台灣對中國大陸出口依賴度提高和相對所得的變動經驗，也無法獲得類似的結論。然而為消彌疑慮，作者建議建立某種型態的對中港出口風險警示機制。

關鍵字

出口集中度；邊緣化；相對所得比；核心區域；出口風險警示

並列摘要

This paper investigates the issue that whether a peripheral small country rising its exports ratio to the 'core' will 'marginalize' its economy or not. 'Marginalization' being defined as the decrease in relative income, the author observes fourteen European peripheral countries versus the original six EU countries, and two North-American peripheral countries versus the core country-U.S.A. The results do not support the hypothesis that rising exports ratio to a growing core will 'marginalize' a peripheral country. Furthermore, the experiences of Hong Kong and Taiwan can not support a similar result either. But to eliminate suspicion, the author suggests some kind of export alarming system for Taiwan.