政治信任、施政表現與民眾對台灣民主的展望

Political Trust, Government Performance, and the Perspective of Deepening Democracy among the Electorate in Taiwan

陳陸輝(Lu-Huei Chen)

《台灣政治學刊》 7卷2期 (2003/12) Pp. 149-188

https://doi.org/10.6683/TPSR.200312.7(2).149-188

摘要

本研究運用1992年到2001年四次立法委員選舉的調查研究資料，檢視台灣地區民眾政治信任感的持續與變遷，以及民眾對執政黨的表現和整體經劑評價與其政治信任感間的關聯性。此外，我們也分析民眾的政治信任感與其對台灣民主政治運作的評價或是展望之間的關聯性。
本研究結顯示，在1992年到1998年之間，民眾的政治信任感出現了顯著下降的趨勢。不過，在政權輪替之後，則出現回升的現象。此外，對執政黨表現的評價以及對總體經濟的評估，都與民眾的政治信任感顯著相關。當民眾認為執政黨過去一年表現較差以及認為過去一年整體社會經濟變壞時，其政治信任感就出現顯著偏低的情況。
此外民眾的政治信任感也與其對民主治政治的評價或是展望有重要的關聯。政治信任感愈高的民眾，對台灣的民主政治實施的展望或是對民主政治的評價愈樂觀。
從本研究的發現可以瞭解，研究台灣民眾政治行為時，政治信任感是一個不可忽視的重要變數。它不但是政府施政表現良否的溫度計，更對於我國民主政治的良性發展，有重要的指標性作用。

關鍵字

政治信任感 ； 施政表現 ； 經濟表現 ； 政黨表現 ； 民主展望

並列摘要

In this paper, longitudinal data has been employed to explore the changes and continuity of political trust among the electorate in Taiwan. This has been done so that the relation between people’s evaluations of ruling party performance, their views on the macro-economic situation, and levels of political trust might be better understood. In addition, the relationship between people’s political trust and their perspectives on democracy in Taiwan has also been investigated.
It was demonstrated, through surveys conducted between 1992 and 1998 that the distribution of people’s political trust declined. These results reversed, however, after the rotation of ruling power brought the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to power in the 2000 presidential election, as people’s political trust subsequently rebounded in 2001. It was also found that people’s evaluations on the performance of the ruling party and the macro-economic situation significantly affected their levels of political trust. Evidence provided also demonstrated that political trust is correlated with perspectives of democracy as people with higher levels of political trust were more likely to be optimistic on the prospective of Taiwan’s deepening democracy.
In conclusion, it was demonstrated that political trust is an important factor in explaining people’s political behavior in Taiwan. It was not only an indication of government performance but also a crucial indicator of healthy democratic development in Taiwan.

並列關鍵字

government performeance ； macro-economy situation ； party performance ； political trust ； prospective of democracy

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