美中台經貿三角結構—對台灣作為以及美中台三邊政治互動的影響

美中台經貿三角關係主要在概念上區分成兩者：經貿制度的建置與經貿活動。在經貿制度相關的議題上，呈現出美中台政治關係的外溢效應。而在經貿活動上，是透過製造業台商所架構出的台灣接單、中國生產、外銷美國的鍊結，美商與陸商都沒有呈現這樣的三角關係。這使得台灣處於對美中經貿爭議極為敏感的處境，也出現了台商與中國的利益，較其與美國的期待更為接近的現況。在與美中台政治三角互動歷程進行比較後發現，我們認為不論是在美中、美台還是兩岸關係上，都不存在緊密經貿關係帶來緊密政治關係，或是政治關係的緊張導致經貿關係的下墜等現象。意即，經貿三角關係與政治三角關係呈現不對位的情形。這在政策上造成的影響是，美國為了穩定台海所提出的鼓勵兩岸經貿互賴的政策，不僅對於兩岸關係的和緩沒有直接效應，反而在現存的經貿三角架構下，操作的結果導致台商與中國利益更趨接近，與美國利益更為疏遠的趨勢，呈現與美國利益不見得一致的發展。針對這個三角架構對台灣產生的行動限制與可能挑戰，台灣應著重強化與美國直接經貿往來的質與量，加強自身內需市場能力的提升等作為，以降低這個經貿三角架構對台灣在其行動自由度所產生的負面衝擊。

關鍵字

美中台三角關係；國際政治經濟學；台美經貿關係

並列摘要

We approach to analyze the US-Taiwan-China trilateral economic relations through differentiating the establishment of economic regulatory regime from economic interactions. The process of the economic regulatory regime establishment relating to the three countries is basically the spillover of the political dynamics of the US-Taiwan-China triangle. On the other hand, the economic interactions of the three sides manifest themselves in the following linkage. The order was taken in Taiwan, and then it was manufactured in China. Finally the products are sold in the United States. This linkage is built through Taiwanese businessman. Because neither does Chinese businessman nor the American businessman demonstrate similar trilateral linkage, Taiwan is put in a position extremely sensitive to economic dispute between U.S. and China. This dynamic also puts Taiwan, through its businessmen's existing heavy investment in China, to align closer with China than with the U.S. After comparing the economy with the political dynamics of the U.S.-Taiwan-China triangle, we came to the preliminary conclusion that closer or better economic interaction would not necessarily lead to better political relations neither would the bad political relations worsen the economic interactions. That is, the economic triangle and political triangle do not demonstrate positive or negative correlations.One immediate implication is that the U.S. government's advocacy of closer cross-Strait economic relation not only did not necessarily reduce the Taiwan Strait tension, but it also could result Taiwan to align closer with China than with the U.S. in economic sphere, resulting to a development usually contrary to the expectation of the United States. Since the triangle presents challenges and long term risk for Taiwan, it is suggested that Taiwan needs to increase the quality and quantity of the direct Taiwan-U.S. trade and to strengthen the market capability for Taiwan. Those measures will ameliorate the negative impacts of the current triangular relationship.

並列關鍵字

U.S.-China-Taiwan triangular relation ； internal political economy ； U.S.-Taiwan economic relations

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