城鄉邊界的凌亂發展對當地自然人文造成重大衝擊,興起許多界定為"遠郊"之土地利用變遷研究,聚焦在低密度的散點式開發,包括如何衡量其形態,並釐清形成之機制。台灣自2000年農發條例修正對農地交易鬆綁,加之以民宿旅遊風潮興起、國人對鄉村生活之嚮往,令大都會周邊的鄉村地區,豪華別墅般之農舍隨處可見,這些住農混雜的低密度開發已形成台灣鄉村之新地貌,同時也造成農地破碎、公共設施浪費與治安問題。但國內對此地理現象之描述與作用之探討並不多。 本研究爰引宜蘭為例,運用國土利用現況調查成果,探討1995至2006年間宜蘭農舍分布之變遷情形及影響農舍開發之因素。運用空間分析描繪農舍分布型態與演化特性,並從網格尺度探討影響農舍分布之因素,先依據遠郊化、住農混雜研究與區位理論,選擇解釋變數,再以logistic迴歸進行實證分析。 研究成果顯示,宜蘭農舍呈現十三個高度聚集區位,沿著都市邊緣、主要幹道發展,但分布結構逐漸鬆散,1995年時可明顯看出半徑四百公尺的小聚落,至2006年時聚集程度減少,農舍趨向均勻擴張,分布疏密的差異在半徑2公里才較為明顯。迴歸結果則表明,農舍之空間分布受到不同尺度之都市聚落、道路、景觀、社經因素、開放空間等作用影響;其中,當地之舊有聚落維繫住農舍的基本聚集型態,而依隨路網蔓延和開放空間偏好之排擠效應則是造成農舍趨向分散之作用力。最後,依據實證結果研擬初步建議,供相關決策單位參考。
The dispersed low density development in the rural-urban fringe, also referred to as exurban, has caused great impact on both human and natural systems. The need to measure and model this scattered pattern has taken on increasing urgency. In Taiwan, with deregulatory policy on the farmland in 2000, as well as the tide of home-stay tourism and desire for rural living, farmhouses have been mushrooming in the exurban areas, especially those convenient to the metropolises. The scattering of farmhouses caused not only farmland fragmentation but also waste of public facilities and criminal problem. However, Taiwan has few research about this geographical phenomenon. This research attempts to measure and model the dispersed exurban land conversion in Yilan County, where in a recent decade has experienced about 300 farmhouses increase every year. In this study, spatial analysis is utilized to measure the pattern, using 1st and 2nd Taiwan Land Use Investigation as basic data. In addition, applying the location theory , the model of farmhouse development is estimated with logistic regression, and the parameters estimated are employed to illustrate future growth potential map based on different hypothesis for cause of dispersion. Results show in 1995 the distribution of farmhouses in Yilan had thirteen main clusters roughly of radius 400m, nearby the edge of city centers and primary roads; while in 2006,farmhosues were distributed evenly and the clusters had loosened and extended the radius to 2km. This study also identified the proximity to roads, the preference for open space and the dependence on original small settlements, are three main determinants underlying the formation of the pattern. The original settlements hold the clusters of new-add farmhouses compact , but the sprawl along roadnet expansion and the repellency among neighboring development could be the force driving patterns to dispersion. According to above empirical results, preliminary recommendations are proposed for decision maker.