我國商業部門照明設備電力需求研究-系統動態模型的建立與應用

The Electricity Demand Forcasting for Lighting in Commerce Sector in Taiwan--an Application of System Dynamics Approach

邱麗芳(Chiu, Li-Fang)

指導教授 ： 張四立

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/自然資源與環境管理研究所/碩士(2008年)

摘要

依據2007年IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)第四次氣候變遷技術摘要報告中顯示，住商建築是未來推動溫室氣體減量最具潛力的部門，而商業部門之能源耗用以冷氣空調及照明設備為主，在面對因大量化石燃料使用，所面臨的能源耗竭問題以及二氧化碳快速的增加所造成的溫室效應，因此，降低商業部門用電需求實乃刻不容緩之事。
因此，本研究乃應用系統動態方法，建構商業部門照明設備的電力需求模型，假設照明設備技術進步與用電行為改變，對於商業部門電力需求之影響及二氧化碳減量成效。
經由模擬實証獲得之結論說明如下：
1、電價成長率將影響用電的需求量，當電力價格維持不變，則商業部門照明電力需求也將呈現每年持續10 %的成長趨勢。
2、電力需求的價格彈性值越大，電力的需求量則呈現下降趨勢，當電力的需求彈性為-0.2，電力需求量的下降百分比約為1.25 %，而當電力的需求彈性為-0.7，則電力需求量的下降百分比則約為 4.35%。
3、以節能環保燈具替代傳統照明燈具，分析結果呈現電力需求量降低其下降百分比約為22.2 %，顯示節能環保燈具可達到節能之成效。

關鍵字

商業部門照明設備 ； 系統動態分析法 ； 電力需求的價格彈性。

並列摘要

According to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007: the residential sector will be with the most potential to achieve greenhouse gas reduction in the future. The energy consumption of commercial sector is mainly on the use of air conditioner and lighting. Energy depletion problem result from increasing use of fossil fuels has caused great concerns in both aspects of energy supply security and climate change. Therefore to reduce the demand of electricity in commercial sector is crucial.
The study is using the system dynamic approach to establish a model for electricity demand of commercial sector in lighting equipments. Assuming that if the lighting technique had developed and the behavior of consuming the electricity had significant changed, effects of energy conservation and carbon dioxide emission reduction in their sector can be achieved.
The conclusion obtained from the simulation model can be summarized as follow:
1.The increase of electricity price will affect the electricity demand. If the price remains stable, the electricity demand will have a 10% growth of increasing year by year.
2.The higher the elasticity of price of electricity, the electricity demand will have a greater tendency of decreasing. When the elasticity value of electricity is set to be -0.2, as shown in Scenario 1 the model estimated that the demand of electricity will decrease about 1.25 %, and when the elasticity value of electricity is set to be -0.7, as shown in Scenario 2, the demand of electricity is estimated to be decreased about 4.35 %.
3.If we replace the conventional lighting equipments with energy-saving lighting equipments, the analysis shows that the electricity demand will decrease about 22.2 % and it shows that the energy-saving lighting equipments could achieve the purpose of saving energy.

並列關鍵字

Commercial department lighting facilities ； system dynamic analysis ； the price elasticity of electricity demand

參考文獻

1、Forrester, J. W., " The System Dynamics National Model: Macrobehavior from Microstructure, " Working paper D-4020, (1989) System Dynamics Group, M.I.T.

3、Taylor, Lester D.; “The Demand for Electricity: A Survey,” Bell Journal of Economics, Spring 1975, pp. 74-110

4、Bohi, Douglas R. and Zimmerman, Mary; “An Update of Econometric Studies of Energy Demand,”Annual Review of Energy, 1984 (9), pp. 105-154.

5、Espey, James A., Espey, Molly, (2004) “Turning on the Lights: A Meta-analysis of Residential Electricity Demand Elasticities,” Journal of Agricultural and AppliedEconomics, April 2004, 36:1, pp. 65-81.

中文文獻