能源密集產業碳風險管理與評估之研究

The Study of Carbon Risk Management and Assessment on Energy Intensive Industries

范鑫榆(Sin-Yu Fan)

指導教授 ： 李堅明

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/自然資源與環境管理研究所/碩士(2008年)

摘要

面對高能源成本與溫室氣體減量的全球發展趨勢下，將衝擊能源密集產業的價值鏈（value chain），提高產業經營風險，影響能源密集產業發展。本研究利用風險評估軟體（@ Risk），評估國內七大能源密集廠商（包括遠東紡織公司、永豐餘公司、台灣水泥公司、中國鋼鐵公司、台塑石化公司以及台積電公司等）面對能源成本提高，以及碳排放限制之現金流量風險值。評估結果如下：（1）高能源成本之風險值比較：台塑石化公司化石能源成本比重最高，風險值最大；而遠東紡織公司的風險率最高；（2）境內減碳成本之風險值比較：中國鋼鐵公司碳排放量最大，風險值最高；永豐餘公司碳排放量較少，風險值最低；（3）參與京都機制之風險值比較：參與清潔發展機制（Clean Development Mechanism, CDM）之風險值最低，最具成本有效性。

關鍵字

能源成本 ； 碳風險 ； 風險值 ； 能源密集產業

並列摘要

Facing both of highly energy price and stringently greenhouse gas emission control situation in the world in the near future, that will impact the supply chain of the energy intensive industries in Taiwan, and increase business administration risk, then limiting its ability to achieve the purpose of sustainable development. This research use a risk assessment soft wave (@Risk) to evaluate net cash flow present value risk from 2008 to 2020 of seven energy intensive firms which each one was selected from major energy intensive industries respectively. Analytical results are as follows: (1) The Taiwan plastic Company has the biggest cash flow value at risk among the seven companies since it’s the highest share of energy cost; (2) Because the biggest amount of GHG emissions level of the China Steel Company will result in the highest value at risk of domestic carbon abatement activities; (3) If Taiwan energy intensive company can joint to Kyoto Mechanism (i.e. International Emission Trading and Clean Development Mechanism ) which can significantly reduce value at risk of carbon abatement activities.

並列關鍵字

energy cost ； carbon risk ； risk at value (VaR) ； energy-intensive industry

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