從兩階段談判結構探究ECFA之博奕過程

An Analysis of the Two–level Game of ECFA Negotiation Process

王立賢(Li-Hsien Wang)

指導教授 ： 吳秀光

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/公共行政暨政策學系/碩士(2013年)

摘要

全球的區域整合趨勢及「東協-中國」自由貿易區成立生效，讓臺灣經貿拓展面臨新挑戰。有鑑於此，馬英九總統上臺後，積極與中國政府展開對話協商，且簽署了「海峽兩岸經濟合作架構協議」（ECFA），以作為解決於中國因素下臺灣所遭遇的困境。然而，ECFA對兩岸貿易交流將帶來何種影響，對兩岸關係將造成何種改變，為一值得探究之課題。

為再探索ECFA，本文一方面將整理出目前研究ECFA議題的一幅基本圖像，另一方面採用「兩階段談判」論點，對ECFA談判個案進行分析，並以臺灣獲得之早收清單為研究對象，聚焦石化、機械業之工具機、汽車等之產業，探討三項產業談判前後之差異。隨後，由政治經濟角度了解兩岸交流之樣態，期認知到後ECFA時代的機會及挑戰。

因此，本研究將經由「文獻分析法」與「個案研究法」說明、分析。之後，針對研究結果回答研究問題，並提出本文的觀點、建議等。

本研究結果顯示，首先，於進入正式談判時，談判結果的決定因素主要在臺海雙方政府之間，此讓臺灣想爭取的項目，最終只可仰賴中國當局之意向。其次，這般景況讓中國的政治經濟因素對臺灣所獲得之早收清單產生重要影響。故本研究認為，ECFA是否可讓臺灣平衡「中國因素」的壓制，未來仍具有變數。

關鍵字

兩階段談判 ； 海峽兩岸經濟合作架構協議 ； 臺灣早收清單 ； 兩岸談判 ； 區域經濟整合

並列摘要

Due to the global trend of regional integration and the operation of “ASEAN–China” Free Trade Agreement, Taiwan’s developments are facing new challenges. After Mr. Ying–Jeou Ma was elected as the president of Taiwan, he began to communicate with the Chinese government positively. Later, Taiwanese government signed Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement（ECFA）with Mainland China. ECFA was a plan to solve Taiwan’s dilemmas when dealing with Mainland China. However, what are the ECFA influences to the cross-strait trade and economic relationships？What’s the logic behind the rapprochement？
This study expounds the basic features of ECFA with the “two–level negotiation” game approach. Also, this study chooses the early harvest list of Taiwan as the focus of the analysis. In particular, it will focus on the petrochemical industry, the machine tool industry and the automobile industry. This article will analyze the differences of the negotiations at the very start and at the end. This article will try to understand the features of cross-strait communicate from the political economy perspective. It is hoped that the opportunities and challenges of the post ECFA era can be understood.
The analysis in this article is based on documentary approach and case study. Then, according to the findings, this article will answer the questions and provide valued recommendations.
The findings demonstrated that, when ECFA entered the formal negotiations, the key players are the Taiwanese government and the Chinese government. Taiwan’s expectation on the items was heavily influenced by its perception of the Chinese government intentions. As a result, Mainland China’s political and economical factors cause important changes on the early harvest list of Taiwan. Finally, this article pondered on whether Taiwan has balanced the restraints of the China factors through ECFA or not. There is still big uncertainty ahead of us.

並列關鍵字

Two–level negotiation ； Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement ； early harvest list of Taiwan ； cross-strait negotiation ； regional economic integration

參考文獻

童振源，2009，《東亞經濟整合與臺灣的戰略》，臺北：政大出版社。

田君美，2012，〈ECFA早收清單周年貿易成效之檢視〉，《經濟前瞻》，141：42–51。

柯國華，2011，〈兩岸賽局回顧與展望–兼論後ECFA時代新情勢〉，《國防雜誌》，26（5）：11–29。

袁鶴齡、沈燦宏，2012，〈從全球治理的權力類型探究兩岸合作的可能模式〉，《中國大陸研究》，55（2）：75–103。

葉國俊、侯乃榕，2007，〈探索臺灣經濟邊緣化問題：國際總體經濟政策協作思維〉，《社會科學論叢》，1（2）：71–104。