台灣地區因地狹人綢,自然資源匱乏,逾99%的能源需要仰賴進口,長期以來能源使用以進口化石能源居多,然而,由於化石燃料之大量使用,除了排放傳統空氣污染物(如粒狀污染物、硫氧化物等)影響環境品質外,更使得導致氣候變遷之溫室氣體排放量居高不下。能源投入為經濟發展之要素之一,能源之開採及使用會對環境造成衝擊,在在凸顯出能源為國家永續發展之重要因子之一。 本研究首先應用LINEX (LINear Exponential) 生產函數將能源要素融入經濟產出模型,透過迴歸分析及資料包絡分析,探討台灣地區能源效率與經濟發展之間的關係,並比較台灣與歐盟27國 (EU-27)之可用能利用效率。再者,對各種再生能源選項擇要進行生命週期評估,計算其環境污染之排放係數,並結合最終能源消費量、經濟產出及排放係數計算空氣污染及溫室氣體排放量。最後,建構考量能源發展、環境保護、社會公平及經濟繁榮4E面向之永續發展系統動態模型 (Threshold 21, T21),設計不同的情境模擬台灣在基於永續發展的政策原則下,未來能源、環境、社會與經濟四者互動之相關分析。 模擬結果顯示,未來工業及服務業國內生產毛額 (GDP)持續成長之趨勢不變,農業GDP則是逐年萎縮,至2020年時經濟總產值約為17.22兆元。空氣污染物及CO2排放量亦隨著經濟成長而增加,至2020年TSP、SOx及CO2排放量分別為74萬公噸、53萬公噸及425百萬公噸。 另外,由情境模擬結果可知,以調適情境 (情境四)為最佳情境,模擬結果與基礎情境相較,至2020年時,至2020年時,GDP增加約6.34%,可用能投入量減少2.22%,而在環境污染方面,CO2排放量為409百萬公噸, TSP排放量減少1.59%,SOx排放量減少4.42%。
Taiwan is a densely populated island country with only limited natural resources. Taiwan's dependence on imported energy was over 99% with large proportion of fossil fuel for a long time. However, with a great deal use of fossil fuels, they produced air pollutants such as sulfide (SOx), total suspended particles (TSP) as well as greenhouse gas emission (GHG). Energy input is an essensial factor for economic production. Energy exploitation and use makes negative impacts to environment. Evidently, energy is an important factor for sustainable development. This study attempted to incorporate energy factor with economic production model. We first adopt the LINear EXponential (LINEX) production function to analyze the relationship among sectoral product and factors of labor, capital, and exergy. As to compare the ‘performance’ of exergy utilization among the EU-27 States and Taiwan, we applied the technique of data envelopment analysis (DEA) to construct the efficiency frontier of exergy productivity. Moreover, life cycle assessment (LCA) is applied to analyze renewable energy in order to abtain emission factor. Meanwhile, final energy consumption, emission factors and economic products were used to evaluate air pollution and GHG emission. Finally, we created a system dynamic model (Threshold 21, T21) incorporates the links among energy, society, the economy and environment as one of its major innovations to better analyze prospects of addressing energy constraints. The base scenario generated by the T21 model shows that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of industry and service sector are increasing in the future while agriculture sector decreasing. Total GDP is reaching 17.22 trillion in 2020. As a result, TSP, SOx and CO2 emissions are 74 ten thousand tons, 53 ten thousand tons, and 425 million tons, respectively. Furthermore, alternative scenarios simulating show that optimal scenario is major reductions in CO2 emissions. To compare with the base scenario, total GDP increased 6.34% while exergy input was 2.22% decreased. On another hand, CO2 emission reached 409 million tons. TSP and SOx emissions cut 1.59% and 4.42% down, respectively.