中國國家安全戰略的改變---以南海及東海為例

The Evolvement Of The China National Security Policy- The Case Studies Of The South And East China Seas

呂紹麒(Shao-Chi Lu)

指導教授 ： 郝培芝

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/公共行政暨政策學系/碩士(2013年)

摘要

冷戰結束之後，學者們多以「守勢現實主義」作為理解中國國家安全政策的基本框架，本研究也大致同意此觀點具有一定解釋力。然而2001年“911事件”的發生促使國際情勢改變，加上2008年美國發生次貸危機重創美國經濟，讓國際權力結構發生變化，在此一新的國際權力結構之下，中國順應國際局勢的變化，逐漸調整其國家安全政策，並有許多新的戰略作為與改變，因此，本研究認為需重新檢視在結構現實主義架構下，「守勢現實主義」對於中國國家安全政策的解釋力。

本研究認為2001年“911事件”的發生使全球反恐戰爭成為美國國家安全主要目標，也使得美國全球性的戰略佈局有所調整，導致國際權力結構發生變化，美國與亞洲各國的戰略關係因為反恐而獲得增強，但也間接形成對中國的戰略圍堵，中國對此被迫作出政策性的回應與調整，導致其國家安全戰略有所轉變。從中國的對外行為及官方政策文件內容等皆觀察出在“911事件”及2008年金融風暴後，中國都明顯調整了其在冷戰後防禦性的安全政策，漸漸轉變成偏向進攻型的安全策略，並對美國全球性的戰略調整作出全面性的回應。因此，本論文提出以結構現實主義的理論對於中國在國家安全戰略的演變作出有效解釋，並以「維持現狀」、「嚇阻戰略」、「昂貴信號」三個驗證指標檢視南海及東海兩個地區個案，證明在“911事件”及2008年金融風暴後，中國的國家安全戰略從防禦性轉變為進攻性。

關鍵字

911事件 ； 中國 ； 結構現實主義 ； 南海 ； 東海

並列摘要

Since the end of Cold War, most of the scholars view Defensive Realism as a fundamental frame to interpret the China National Security Strategy. This thesis also holds the same point of view. However, since the world-stunning event of 911 in 2001 has changed the international relations, and the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 has severely devastated the U.S economy, the world power structure has changed. Under this new circumstance, China has gradually been adjusting its security policies and strategies. Therefore, this study suggests that under the frame of Structural Realism, the explanation based on Defensive Realism to the China National Security Strategy be reconsidered.

This study suggests the event of 911 has not only made the global war on terror the priority target of the U.S national security, but also forced the U.S to make some changes on its global strategy, which consequently altered the world power structure; the relation among U.S and the countries in Asia has been strengthened because of the wars on terror. This indirectly led to the military isolation against China, and left China no choice but making adjustment on its national security strategy and the political announcement on this issue. According to the response of China, it can be analyzed that China has been constantly switching its defensive security strategy to offensive security strategy, which is the response to the U.S newly- adjusted global strategy.

Hence, this thesis suggests taking the theory of Structure Realism as an effective explanation for the changes China has made on its national security strategy. Furthermore, take the South China Sea and the East China Sea as the examples, it can be proved by the following three examining indicators, maintaining the status quo, deterrence strategy, and costly signal, that the China national strategy has been switched from defense to offense after the event of 911 and the financial crisis in 2008.

並列關鍵字

911 ； China ； Structural Realism ； South China Sea ； East China Sea

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