本研究嘗試應用存活模型分析台商在中國大陸子公司海外直接投資的存活穩定性,並加入與日商的比較。首先運用無參數模型Kaplan-Meier估計式,推導出台商與日商在中國大陸直接投資食品業之存活曲線,發現台商直接投資的存活曲線是高於日商直接投資中國大陸的存活曲線,甚至其2012年台商與日商的存活率差異達20.31%。再使用Cox迴歸模型找出造成台商與日商對外直接投資中國大陸穩定性的差異因素。 實證研究結果顯示,日商在國內母公司的研發費用與對內投資額愈高,對外直接投資中國大陸子公司的危險比率也愈高,存活期間也相對較短。台商則與日商相反,台商在國內母公司的研發費用與對內投資額愈高,對國外直接投資中國大陸子公司的危險比率也愈低,存活期間也相對較長。 因此,台商對外直接投資中國大陸食品製造業子公司的穩定性高於日商的可能因素,就是台商海外直接投資中國大陸子公司導致的技術外溢效果大於日商,使台商較日商在中國大陸的存活期間較長。
The main purpose of the thesis is to study the stability analysis of Taiwanese outward foreign direct investment(FDI)in China and compare with Japanese case. Survival analysis is applied to examine the duration and stability of outward FDI. As a first step, the thesis employs the Kaplan-Meier method to estimate the survival curves of Taiwanese and Japanese outward FDI in China's food industry, and finding the survival rates are higher for Taiwanese than Japanese during the period of 2003-2012, especially in the end year of the sample, the hazard rates are 67.7% and 47.4% for Taiwanese and Japanese, respectively. As a second step, the thesis employs the Cox proportional hazard model to examine the factors that may affect the duration and stability of FDI. Empirical results find evidence of a positive and significant relationship between R&D expenditure/domestic investment and the hazard rate. This implys that Japanese with greater R&D expenditure and domestic investment would decrease the survival of FDI in China. On the contrary, the significant negative relationship between Taiwanese R&D expenditure/domestic investment and the hazard rate implys that Taiwanese with greater R&D expenditure and domestic investment would enhance the survival of FDI in China. Therefore, the thesis presents the survival rates of Taiwanese outward FDI in China’s food industry is higher than Japanese case due to technology spillover that previous studies point out.