近年來臺灣天災頻仍,加上工商業經濟發展,於水患發生時常造成非常嚴重的生命財產損失,故水災風險管理將變成重要的議題,本研究將水災風險概念應用於新北市地區,為了解新北市地區之水災生命風險的空間分布關係,本研究沿用前人所建立之風險度架構及層級分析法(Analytic hierarchy process, AHP)並加入超越機率函數概念將研究結果繪製風險地圖及防災地圖。本研究結合不同24小時延時降雨情境所得之危險度分數,建立危險度頻率曲線(Hazard frequency curve),計算一地之年平均危險度(Annual average hazard, AAH),以整合不同降雨情境之危險度,並定義其為一地之年平均風險度(Annual average risk, AAR)。利用已量化的年平均風險度結合半定量風險矩陣分析,並繪製年平均風險地圖。 利用年平均風險地圖可以知道不同地區之高風險成因及其空間分布,本研究發現高風險地區多集中在新莊區塔寮坑溪、汐止區內基隆河及淡水區之淡水河沿岸。鑒於此,本研究以峽谷型汐止區、海岸型淡水區及窪地型新莊區之高風險地區做為防災地圖範例,並以村里為最小單位劃分各避難點收容範圍,以此防災地圖可作為往後各機關避難路線之參考設計規範並可作為民眾自主防災之資訊來源。
With the geographic location and fragile geological condition, Taiwan encounters many natural disasters such as earthquake, typhoon, and flood, etc. every year. Because of the high density of population and intensive land use, these inundation disasters usually cause a lot of damages. Risk management for natural hazard is becoming an important issue. The objectives of this study are to establish a framework of flood risk assessment and to design prevention maps taking New Taipei City as an example. Annual average risk (AAR) is composed of vulnerability and annual average hazard (AAH). The AAR is made of the analytical results of expert questionnaire, analytic hierarchy process method (AHP), socioeconomic data and inundation potential material. The AAR system simulation is used to construct the hazard frequency curve in region at AAH. The study found that the high AAR areas are concentrated in the bank along Ta-Liao-Keng river, Keelung river, and Tamsui river in Xinzhuang, Xizhi, and Tamsui, respectively. This research selects 3 areas from the high AAR regions as the example for prevention maps. Assess according to the real examples of district temporary shelters, evacuation regions, and flood areas, etc. The achievement of the research can be applied to risk mitigation of our national territory space plans by relevant units in the future, or used by related research or used for risk insurance. Flood prevention maps can be an alternative of flood potential maps for being a regard of building design specifications.