氣候變遷下極端事件之淹水災害風險分析

李岳霖

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氣候變遷下極端事件之淹水災害風險分析

Risk Assessment of Inundation under Extreme Events of Climate Change

李岳霖 , Masters　　Advisor：朱子偉;謝龍生　　

繁體中文

氣候變遷；淹水災害；風險；脆弱性；暴露量；層級分析法； Climate Change ； Flood Disaster ； Risk ； Vulnerability ； Exposure ； AHP

Abstract │ Reference (60) │ Times Cited (3) │ Altmetrics

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Typhoons and severe storms usually result in inundation and tremendous loss of lives and properties in Taiwan due to the non-uniformly distributed rainfall both in space and time with the fragile geographic conditions. However, government funding resources are limited, so the priority management of the flood control measures is urgently needed. . Therefore, this study aims to assess the impacts of climate change on regional flood risk and vulnerability by employing a multi-index model.  Moreover, the risk maps established by this model could provide beneficial information for authorities and agencies to enhance the local resistance of flooding, manage the rescuing resources more effectively, and propose appropriate improvements for further disaster mitigation in the future.
This study utilizes AHP to quantify the relative importance of nine indices that construct the inundation risk model. Unlike typical AHP approach to integrate various opinions of experts, this study additionally adopts flooding experiences from local residents to enrich the experts judgments for the better weight assignment. First, this study established flooding risk maps of 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 200 year of return periods in Lan-yang Basin. Finally, rainfall magnitude over 100 return period were selected to perform and produce the distribution maps of flooding risk, vulnerability, hazard, exposure, which represent the inundation characteristics under the impacts of climate change.
The study results indicate that risk map established by this model could provide beneficial information for authorities and agencies to enhance that local resistance of flooding, manage the rescuing resources more effectively, and propose appropriate improvements for further disaster mitigation in the future.

Reference ( 60 ) 〈TOP〉

[2] Buede, D. M. and D.T. Maxwell. Rank Disagreement: A Comparison of Multi-criteria Methodologies, Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, Vol.4, No.1, 1995, pp. 1-21.
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[4] Cutter, S. L. et al., Revealing the Vulnerability of People and Places: A Case Study of Georgetown County, South Carolina, Annals of the Association of American Geographers, Vol.90, No.4, 2000, pp. 713-737.
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[6] Cutter, S. L., Vulnerability to environmental hazards, Progress in Human Geography, Vol.20, No.4, 1996, pp.529-539.
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[7] Cutter, S.L., The vulnerability of science and the science of vulnerability, Annals of the Association of American Geographers, Vol.93, 2003, pp. 1-12.
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[9] Gabor, T. and Griffith, T.K., The assessment of community vulnerability to acute hazardous materials incidents. Journal of Hazardous Materials, No.8, 1980, pp. 323-333.
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