影響房地產價格因素之研究:以台中市北屯區、西屯區、南屯區、中區、東區為例

A Study on the Factors Which Affect the Real Estate Values: Pei-tuo, Shi-Tuo, Nan-tuo, Central, and East District in the Taichung City

蔡育政(Yu-Cheng Tsai)

指導教授 ： 陳建宏

朝陽科技大學/管理學院/財務金融系/碩士(2009年)

摘要

近年來，台中地區的重大建設持續推動，所帶來的效應與相關因素不斷的影響台中地區房地產市場發展與價格變動。因一般房地產消費者或投資人，較不易從總體經濟等數據來進行購屋或投資的判斷，本研究希望能讓一般房地產消費者，進行購屋或投資時，建立參考指標。本研究為探討影響台中市房價變動因素，以2000年至2008年九年之間的北屯區、西屯區、南屯區、中區與東區五個行政區的房地產交易筆數資料，共為4615筆樣本，進行五個行政區域之迴歸分析。並將資料分為新、舊開發區作一比較，主要結果如下：
影響房價因素中，屋齡在不同行政區域皆對房價有負向影響。就臨街關係對於房價的影響，可以發現各區的裡地價格普遍比臨街地低，對房價有負向影響。因為開發區域的不同，使得路角地不一定比臨街地有價值，因此對房價呈現正、負影響。至於房屋用途類別對於不同行政區域房價之關係，透天住宅的房價是較高，但是因為不同行政區對於自身區域的定位不同，也使得房屋用途類別有不同的影響。2003年SARS期間房價顯著較低，但2007年、2008年房地產復甦，房價顯著較高，而路寬與移轉房屋面積則對房價呈現正向影響。

關鍵字

迴歸分析 ； 台中市房價變動因素

並列摘要

In recent years, the effects and relevant factors of the promotion of major constructions in Taichung area have influenced the development and price fluctuations of the real estate market in Taichung. Normally, it is hard for real estate consumers or investors to evaluate their real estate purchases or investments. This research aims to establish a reference index for common real estate consumers during the process of purchasing real estate or investing. This research probes into the real estate transactions of 5 administration regions in Taichung (Pei-tuo, Shi-Tuo, Nan-tuo, Central and East District) from 2000 to 2008 through regression analysis to discuss the influences on the price fluctuations of the Taichung real estate market. A comparison between the new and old development areas is made regarding the 4615 samples collected in total. The main findings of this research are as follows:
Among all the influences on real estate prices, housing age has negative influences on housing price in different administration regions. With regard to the influences of the relation to streets on housing price, the average lower price of the lands in different areas than that of street lots has a negative influence on housing price. Resulted from the differences between development areas, cornet lots, which are not necessarily more valuable than street lots, have both negative and positive influences on housing price. Concerning the relation between different usages of houses and the different housing prices in different administration regions, detached houses are more valuable than the others; however, the different self-positions of different administration regions also bring different impacts on different usages of the houses. There was a drop of housing price in 2003 during SARS outbreak; nonetheless, the housing price in 2007 and 2008 had a notable recovery. Road widths and the scale of house transfer areas have positive influences on housing price.

並列關鍵字

regression analysis ； the real estate transactions of 5 administration

參考文獻

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張麗姬，1994，〈從遠期契約和現貨的角度論預售屋和成屋的價格關係---以台北市為例〉，《住宅學報》，2：67-85。

曹昌勝，2007，《房地產泡沫化模型之探討》，台灣大學管理學院國際企業研究所碩士論文。

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