高齡化社會引發國家未來資源分配的問題,台灣於2013年高齡人口已達11.53%,且正以高於歐美已開發國家的高齡化倍化速度成長,高齡化社會面臨環境、醫療、長照、經濟以及機動力等方面的挑戰,而高齡社會移動力將是牽動整體社會資源平衡的關鍵。對此,本研究以社會移動力指標模式,透過分析性數學方法,進行需求反應式運輸服務設計;同時,搭配吉尼係數的理論,衡量台北市各行政區高齡者,於休閒與醫療兩種不同的旅運活動下,是否因需求反應式彈性運輸的導入,得以提升區域整體運輸資源分配的公平性。 實證分析中,本研究在社會移動力、運輸資源分配公平性以及營運成本等,三項不同的目標的考量下,建立的三種方案選擇模式,針對台北市各行政區休閒和醫療兩種活動型態,提供差異性的公共運輸服務。分析結果顯示,需求反應式運輸的導入,適用於公共運輸較不足的南區與北區,如南港區與北投區。同時,透過方案選擇模式,三項目標的考量皆有所改善。敏感度分析方面,服務範圍的長寬、車輛行駛速率以及車內時間的變項參數,對於各分析結果有較顯著的影響。本研究成果將有助於政策面,能夠對不同的高齡公共運輸政策之目標,評估需求反應式運輸服務最為適切的導入方式。
Aging society gives rise to the problem of resource allocation in a country in the future. Taiwan, currently, is facing this challenge with a high proportion of aging population reaching 11.53% in 2013, which is faster than developed occidental countries in the aging process. A stable social mobility for the elderly plays an important role in balancing the rapid change of society. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the social benefits of implementing demand responsive transit service (DRTS). First, the study developed a mathematical model with objective of maximum social mobility and delivery times as decision variable to provide different patterns of service of DRT for the elderly among districts in Taipei City. Gini index is also used to evaluate the benefits in terms of the equity of resource allocation in public transportation after the implementation of the DRTS. Three optimal models with objective function including social mobility, equity and operation cost are set to decide the best arrangement of the DRTS in each of district. The result of numerical case shows that the DRTS is better to be deployed in areas lack of public transportation such as Nangang district and Beitou district. Meantime, either objective in the numerical case proves that social mobility, equity and operation cost gets better performance after the differential arrangement of DRTS. It is also shown that range of service area, travel speed of vehicle and in-vehicle time are sensitive to the result. Results of this study provide a reference for the development of future transportation policy in the aging society.