金融海嘯後中國對於東亞貨幣整合的策略分析：亞元與人民幣之間的抉擇

China's Strategy toward Regional Currency Integration during the Financial Tsunami: A Choice between the Asian Currency Unit and the Renminbi

左正東(Chen-Dong Tso) ； 葉國俊(Kuo-Chun Yeh)

《遠景基金會季刊》 12卷1期 (2011/01) Pp. 81-128

https://doi.org/10.7063/PQ.201101.0081

摘要

「亞元」本由亞洲金融危機催生，故此次金融海嘯有可能加速其發展。不過，在中國經濟規模超越日本，人民幣成為強勢貨幣後，中國是否願意支持亞元，與他國分享貨幣主權，抑或使人民幣單獨成為國際儲備貨幣，涉及複雜的成本效益。本文認為中國雖對亞元存有疑慮，但鑑於對抗美國霸權之需要，以及人民幣國際化的成本，中國未必反對亞元。只要在中國轉化為內需市場且加速金融自由化前，完成包含人民幣在內的單一貨幣，亞元仍有機會。

關鍵字

亞元 ； 人民幣 ； 金融海嘯 ； 國際貨幣制度 ； 亞洲貨幣基金

並列摘要

As one of the by-products of the Asian Financial Crisis, the Asian Currency Unit (ACU) was expected by many to have good chances of developing during the 2008 financial tsunami. However, with China surpassing Japan in economic size and the Renminbi becoming much stronger, as to whether China is willing to share its monetary sovereignty with other East Asian countries is now being seriously questioned. China's decision to choose between working with Japan to pursue the ACU project or going it alone to transform the Renminbi into an international reserve currency inevitably involves a delicate calculation. This paper argues that, due to a desire to confront American hegemony and a need to reduce the costs that it would incur due to the Renminbi's internationalization, China does not necessarily oppose the ACU despite its skepticism regarding the project. The ACU still has a chance to prevail as long as it can forge a single currency with the Renminbi on board before China dramatically expands its domestic market and speeds up its financial liberalization.

並列關鍵字

ACU ； Renminbi ； Financial Tsunami ； International Monetary System ； Asian Monetary Fund

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