Title

移民和留學的旅遊吸引效果—以中國出境旅遊市場為例

Translated Titles

The Impact of Emigrants and Study-Abroad Students on China’s Outbound Tourism

DOI

10.6342/NTU201600731

Authors

陳昱安

Key Words

中國 ; OECD ; 出境旅遊 ; 移民 ; 留學生 ; 重力模型 ; China ; OECD ; Outbound tourism ; Migration ; Study-abroad students ; Gravity model

PublicationName

臺灣大學農業經濟學研究所學位論文

Volume or Term/Year and Month of Publication

2016年

Academic Degree Category

碩士

Advisor

羅竹平

Content Language

繁體中文

Chinese Abstract

本研究提供移民是否可以影響旅遊人次的實證研究,分析主體為中國的出境旅遊市場。探討移居在外國的中國移民是否可以增進該國的中國遊客人次,除了探討長期移民外,在學術上本研究首先將短期移民亦加入分析模型,驗證中國留學生是否能吸引中國民眾前往該留學國家旅遊。選取樣本為OECD的34個會員國,資料涵蓋範圍為西元1999年至2013年。迴歸結果支持移民是影響中國人民出境旅遊的因素之一,本研究得到中國移民的迴歸係數為0.230。在99%的信心水準下,OECD國家的中國移民增加1%,則到訪OECD國家的中國遊客會增加0.230%。居住在OECD國家的移民具有拉力作用可以吸引更多中國遊客前來觀光。另一方面,中國留學生的迴歸係數為0.113,在99%的信心水準下,前往OECD國家留學的中國留學生增加1%,則到訪OECD國家的中國遊客會增加0.113%,顯示留學生對於出境旅遊人數也具有顯著的正向影響。移民可能由於探親旅遊、商務需求而吸引更多家鄉的人民前往旅遊。而留學生除了引起探親旅遊以外,在中國有許多家庭為了未來就業、移民方便,會先探訪考察熱門的留學、移民國家而增加旅遊人次。

English Abstract

Immigration can induce tourism. The purpose of this paper is to investigate that how immigrants influence on Mainland China’s outbound tourism flow. The gravity model is developed and estimated using data from 1999 to 2013 for 34 OECD destination countries. Importantly this paper first demonstrates that short-run immigrants, namely international students, can also affect the demand of tourism. Tourism arrivals from China to OECD members are regressed against GDP, distance, real exchange rate, stock of OECD residents born in China, which is used as a proxy for immigration from China, and the number of Chinese students study aboard in OECD countries. The results empirically support the connection between immigration and outbound tourism. The emigration elasticity estimated is 0.230 and the study-abroad student elasticity is 0.113. It proves that the stock of Chinese residing abroad (including the international students) has a positive pulling effect on China’s outbound tourism. Not only the regular visiting friends and relatives trip triggered by emigrants and study-abroad students can induce tourism inflow from China to OECD countries. Those who have business connections with emigrants between OECD countries and China will also increase the tourism outflow from China by travel for business purpose. In China, there are huge demand for migration and study abroad. Chinese people are interesting in investigating popular migration and study abroad destination countries by joining a short term inspecting travel route before they decide which country to apply. By doing this, those countries who have more stock of immigrant and international students born in China can have more attraction to Chinese tourists.

Topic Category 生物資源暨農學院 > 農業經濟學研究所
生物農學 > 農業
Reference
  1. 徐榮崇,2008。「跨國的移置與鑲嵌── 談加拿大臺灣僑民的移民動機與居住地選擇」,『臺北市立教育大學學報(人文社會類)』。39卷,2期,39-77。
    連結:
  2. Andreu, Rosario, Enrique Claver and Diego Quer‚ 2014. “Destination Attributes and Chinese Outbound Tourism to Europe‚” Journal of China Tourism Research. 10(3): 275-291.
    連結:
  3. Balli, Faruk, Hatice Ozer Balli, and Kemal Cebeci, 2013. “Impacts of exported Turkish soap operas and visa-free entry on inbound tourism to Turkey‚” Tourism Management. 37: 186-192.
    連結:
  4. Balli, Faruk, Hatice Ozer Balli, and Rosmy Jean Louis‚ 2016. “The Impacts of Immigrants and Institutions on Bilateral Tourism Flows‚” Tourism Management. 52: 221-229.
    連結:
  5. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H.‚ 1985. “The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence‚” The Review of Economics and Statistics. 67(3): 474-481.
    連結:
  6. CEPII, 2016. Notes on CEPII’s distances measures : the GeoDist Database. Paris: Center for International Prospective Studies. (20160524)
    連結:
  7. Chan, Yuk Wah‚ 2006. “Coming of Age of the Chinese Tourists The emergence of Non-Western Tourism and Host—Guest Interactions in Vietnam's Border Tourism‚” Tourist Studies. 6(3): 187-213.
    連結:
  8. Corigliano, Magda Antonioli‚ 2011. “The Outbound Chinese Tourism to Italy: The New Graduates' Generation‚” Journal of China Tourism Research. 7(4): 396-410.
    連結:
  9. Dwyer, Larry, Neelu Seetaram, Peter Forsyth, and Brian King ,2014. “Is the migration-tourism relationship only about VFR? ‚” Annals of Tourism Research. 46:130-143.
    連結:
  10. Feng, Kathy, and Stephen J. Page, 2000. “An exploratory study of the tourism, migration–immigration nexus: Travel experiences of Chinese residents in New Zealand‚” Current Issues in tourism. 3(3): 246-281.
    連結:
  11. Forsyth, Peter, Larry Dwyer, Neelu Seetaram, and Brian King‚ 2012. “Measuring the Economic Impact of Migration-Induced Tourism‚” Tourism Analysis. 17(5): 559-571.
    連結:
  12. Girma, Sourafel, and Zhihao Yu, 2002. “The link between immigration and trade: Evidence from the United Kingdom,”Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv. 138(1):115-130.
    連結:
  13. Gopinath, Munisamy and Rodrigo Echeverria‚ 2004. “Does Economic Development Impact the Foreign Direct Investment-Trade Relationship? A Gravity-Model Approach‚” American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 86(3): 782-787.
    連結:
  14. Gould, David M.‚ 1994. “Immigrant Links to the Home Country: Empirical Implications for US Bilateral Trade Flows‚” Review of Economics and Statistics. 76(2): 302-316.
    連結:
  15. Guthrie, Harold W.‚ 1961. “Demand for Tourists' Goods and Services in a World Market‚” Papers in Regional Science. 7(1): 159-175.
    連結:
  16. Head, Keith, and John Ries, 1998. “Immigration and Trade Creation: Econometric Evidence from Canada, ” The Canadian Journal of Economics. 31(1): 47-62.
    連結:
  17. Hua, Yun, and Joanne Jung-Eun Yoo‚ 2011. “Travel Motivations of Mainland Chinese Travelers to the United States‚” Journal of China Tourism Research. 7(4): 355-376.
    連結:
  18. Jackson, Richard T‚ 1990. “VFR Tourism: Is It Underestimated‚” Journal of Tourism Studies. 1(2): 10-17.
    連結:
  19. Karemera, David, Victor Iwuagwu Oguledo, and Bobby Davis‚ 2000. “A Gravity Model Analysis of International Migration to North America‚” Applied Economics. 32(13): 1745-1755.
    連結:
  20. King, Brian‚ 1994. “What Is Ethnic Tourism? An Australian Perspective‚” Tourism Management. 15(3): 173-176.
    連結:
  21. Krugman, Paul, 1995. “Increasing Returns, Imperfect Competition and The Positive Theory of International Trade,” Handbook of International Economics 3: 1243-1277.
    連結:
  22. Law, David, Murat Genç, and John Bryant, 2009. “Trade, diaspora and migration to New Zealand‚” NZ Institute for Economic Research Working Papers No. 4.
    連結:
  23. Leitão, Nuno Carlos, and Muhammad Shahbaz, 2012. “Migration and tourism demand‚” Theoretical and Applied Economics. 19(2): 39-48.
    連結:
  24. Li, Mimi, Tong Wen, and Ariel Leung‚ 2011 “An Exploratory Study of the Travel Motivation of Chinese Female Outbound Tourists‚” Journal of China Tourism Research. 7(4): 411-424.
    連結:
  25. OECD, 2016. Stocks of foreign-born population in OECD countries (1999-2013). Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (20160524)
    連結:
  26. Rauch, James E., and Vitor Trindade, 2002. “Ethnic Chinese networks in international trade,”Review of Economics and Statistics. 84(1): 116-130.
    連結:
  27. Seetaram, Neelu, 2012a. “Immigration and international inbound tourism: Empirical evidence from Australia‚” Tourism Management. 33 (6): 1535-1543.
    連結:
  28. Seetaram, Neelu, and Larry Dwyer‚ 2009. “Immigration and Tourism Demand in Australia: A panel Data Analysis‚” Anatolia. 20(1): 212-222.
    連結:
  29. Seetaram, Neelu‚ 2012b. “Estimating Demand Elasticities for Australia’s International Outbound Tourism‚” Tourism Economics. 18(5): 999-1017.
    連結:
  30. Shepherd, Ben, 2013. The Gravity Model of International Trade: A User Guide. Bangkok: United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific .(http://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/tipub2645.pdf) (2015/12/20)
    連結:
  31. Tadesse, Bedassa, and Roger White,2012. “Do immigrants enhance international trade in services? The case of US tourism services exports‚” International Journal of Tourism Research. 14(6): 567-585.
    連結:
  32. Tinbergen, Jan, 1963. “Shaping the World Economy, ” The International Executive 5(1) : 27-30.
    連結:
  33. United Nations World Tourism Organization ‚ 2015. UNWTO Annual Report 2014. Spain: United Nations World Tourism Organization .
    連結:
  34. Williams, Allan M., and C. Michael Hall‚ 2002. Tourism, Migration, Circulation and Mobility. NewYork:Springer.
    連結:
  35. Xie, Yanjun, and Miao Li‚ 2009. “Development of China's Outbound Tourism and the Characteristics of Its Tourist Flow‚” Journal of China Tourism Research. 5(3): 226-242.
    連結:
  36. Yang, Xiaoyang, Tobias Reeh, and Werner Kreisel‚ 2011. “Cross-Cultural Perspectives on Promoting Festival Tourism—An Examination of Motives and Perceptions of Chinese Visitors Attending the Oktoberfest in Munich (Germany)‚” Journal of China Tourism Research. 7(4): 377-395.
    連結:
  37. Yang, Yang, and Xiwei Wu‚ 2014. “Chinese Residents' Demand for Outbound Travel: Evidence from the Chinese Family Panel Studies‚” Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research. 19(10): 1111-1126.
    連結:
  38. 王辉耀(编),2014。『国际人才蓝皮书 中国国际移民报告(2015)』。北京:社会科学文献。
  39. 王辉耀、苗绿,2014。『国际人才蓝皮书 中国留学发展报告(2014) No.3』。北京:社会科学文献。
  40. 中国国务院,2011。『中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划纲要』。北京:中国国务院。
  41. 中国国家统计局,2014。『2013年统计公报』。北京:中国国家统计局。
  42. 中国旅游研究院,2015。『2015年度中国出境旅游发展报告』。北京:中国旅游研究院。
  43. 邓爱民,2011。「中国出境旅游需求决定因素的实证研究」,『宏观经济研究』。2011卷,12期,79-83。
  44. 世界旅游及旅行理事会,2015。『旅游和旅行 2015年对经济的影响』。伦敦:世界旅游及旅行理事会。
  45. 世界旅游城市联合会,2014。 『中国公民出境(城市)旅游消费 市场调查报告2014』。北京:世界旅游城市联合会。
  46. 世界旅游城市联合会,2015。『中国公民出境(城市)旅游消费 市场调查报告2014-2015』。北京:世界旅游城市联合会。
  47. 朱易兰,2005。「用"木桶原理"分析中国出境游市场消费者行为特征」,『北京第二外国语学院学报』。27卷,5期 103-113。
  48. 交通部統計查詢網,2016。『來臺遊客人數按居住地分』。(http://stat.motc.gov.tw/mocdb/stmain.jsp?sys=100&funid=a7101) (20160425)。
  49. 江林、李祉辉,2005。「中国公民赴韩国旅游市场分析—以我国六大旅游热点城市为例」,『旅游学刊』。20卷,2期,9-14。
  50. 胡润研究院,2014。『2014 至尚优品—中国千万富豪品牌倾向报告』。上海:胡润研究院。
  51. 胡润研究院,2014。『海外教育特别报告 2014』。上海:胡润研究院。
  52. 許建隆,2013。『觀光開麥拉』。臺北市:致知學術。25-31。
  53. (https://books.google.com.tw/books?isbn=9868995582)(20151030)
  54. 舒燕、林龙新,2012。「外商直接投资对中国双边服务贸易流量的影响研究——基于服务贸易引力模型的实证分析」,『贵州财经学院学报』。30卷,5期25-29。
  55. 齊中熙、周慧敏,2016。『中国游客全球影响力扩大 出境游消费超千亿美元』《新華社》。1月29日。
  56. (http://www.cnta.gov.cn/xxfb/jdxwnew2/201601/t20160129_759447.shtml)(20160521)
  57. Anderson, James E.‚1979. “A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation‚” The American Economic Review. 69(1): 106-116.
  58. Dwyer, Larry, Ian Burnley, Peter Forsyth, and Peter Murphy, 1993. “Tourism-immigration interrelationships‚” Canberra: Bureau of Tourism Research.
  59. Dwyer, Larry, Peter Forsyth, Brian King, and Neelu Seetaram, 2010. “Migration-related determinants of Australian inbound and outbound tourism flows‚” STCRC.
  60. Etzo, Ivan, Carla Massidda, and Romano Piras‚ 2013. “Estimating the Migration-Tourism Nexus for Italy’s International Outbound Tourism‚” presented at the 54th annual conference of the Italian Economic Association. Rome,Oct24-26. (http://www.siecon.org/online/en/convegni/2013-54ma-rsa-bologna/) (2015/12/20)
  61. Genç, Murat‚ 2013. “Migration and tourism flows to New Zealand‚” in Quantitative Methods in Tourism Economics‚ pp.113-126. Edited by Álvaro Matias,Peter Nijkamp,and Manuela Sarmento. Berlin: Springer-Verlag.
  62. Gheasi, Masood, Peter Nijkamp, and Piet Rietveld, 2011. “Migration and tourist flows‚” Physica-Verlag HD, pp111-126.
  63. Hollander, G.,1982. “Determinants of demand for travel to and from Australia‚” Working Paper No.26. Bureau of Industry Economics, Australia.
  64. Landreth, Garry L., 2001.Innovations in Play Therapy.何長珠、陳信昭、陳碧玲、徐
  65. 世厚、賴麗明譯,2004。『遊戲治療新趨勢』。台北:五南。(https://books.google.com.tw/books?isbn=9571134910)(20160523)
  66. OECD, 2016. Inflation(CPI) (1999-2013). Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (20160524)
  67. Rahman, Mohammad Mafizur‚ 2003. “A Panel Data Analysis of Bangladesh’s Trade: the Gravity Model Approach‚” paper presented at the 5th Annual Conference of the European Trade Study Group (ETSG2003). Madrid, Spain, September 11-13. (http://www.etsg.org/ETSG2003/ETSG2003_Programme_Mk1.htm) (2015/12/20)
  68. (http://www2.unwto.org/ annualreport2014) (2015/12/20)