Chi-Chi Earthquake-caused Landslide: Grey prediction Model for Pioneer Vegetation Recovery Monitored by Satellite Images

集集大地震崩塌區：衞星影像監測先鋒植被恢複之灰預測模式

楊棋明(Chi-Ming Yang) ； 陳建璋(Jan-Chang Chen) ； 彭嵐霖(Lan-Lin Peng) ； 楊智旭(Jr-Syu Yang) ； 周昌弘(Chang-Hung Chou)

《Botanical Bulletin of Academia Sinica》 43卷1期 (2002/01) Pp. 69-75

https://doi.org/10.7016/BBAS.200201.0069

摘要

本研究應用多期SPOT衞星遙測資料評估集集大地震九份二山崩場區植被恢複之速度。灰色理論亦被應用於預測先鋒植被完全覆蓋非岩石崩場區所需之時間，並與線性問題回歸、指數回歸與多相式回歸分析做比較。當傳統三種回歸分析預測完全恢複分別須要5.2年、1.6年與3.4年時，灰預測需要2.0年，根據崩場區現場地真調查顯示，九份二山崩場區植被恢複之速度可能跟隨灰預測模式，亦即 x(k+1)=72387.143e^(0.4704).而此恢複過程顯示有一個的二個月之遲滯期。

關鍵字

地震崩塌區 ； 灰預測模式 ； 先鋒植被 ； 烣複 ； 衞星影像

並列摘要

We applied multiple SPOT satellite remote sensing data to evaluate the recovery rate of vegetation in the Chiu-Feng-Er mountain landslide area after the Chi-Chi Earthquake. The grey theory was also applied to predict the time required for pioneer vegetation to completely reclaim the non-rock landslide area, and this was compared with the results of linear, exponential, and polynomial regression analysis. While complete recovery of vegetation may take 5.2, 1.6 and 3.4 years predicted by the linear, exponential, and polynomial regression analyses, respectively, it may take 2.0 years according to grey analysis. On the basis of ground investigation, the recovery process of pioneer vegetation in Chiu-Feng-Er Mountain landslide may follow the equation of the grey prediction model, i.e. x(k+1)=72387.143e^(0.4704). This recovery process exhibited a lag phase of approximately two months.

並列關鍵字

Earthquake-caused landslide ； Grey prediction model ； Pioneer vegetation ； Recovery ； Satellite images