Strategic Interaction Theory at the Operational Level of Warfare

Michał Pawiński

《Tamkang Journal of International Affairs》 21卷1期 (2017/07) Pp. 1-51

https://doi.org/10.6185/TJIA.V.21.N1.P1P52

摘要

This paper will analyze the Anti-Access/Area Denial strategy (A2/AD), Air-Sea Battle (ASB) and Offshore Control (OC) in order to understand the potential outcomes of their implementation in the case conflict between the US and China over Taiwan. To facilitate this objective, I will use a theory of strategic interaction presented by Ivan Arreguin-Toft. The essence of the strategic interaction thesis is that there are two patterns of strategic interaction - same-approach of direct strategy vs. direct strategy; and opposite-approach of direct strategy vs. indirect strategy. Thus, the first part of this research will focus on explanation of the strategic interaction theory and differences between the interactions. The second part will discuss the Chinese Anti-Access/Area-Denial, American Air-Sea Battle and Offshore Control strategies, and at the same time, to each of them, will be attached to one or more strategic interaction approaches. The third part will apply strategic interaction theory into practice under a variety of assumptions for each interaction, and propose possible outcomes. The last part of the article will briefly discuss what the outcomes actually mean and what could be done to improve the effectiveness of proposed strategies.

參考文獻

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(2010).The U.S. Army War College Guide to National Security Issues.