面對中共武統威脅我軍事戰略調整之戰略作為

Taiwan's Strategic Action under Its Adjustment of Military Strategyin Face of the Threat of the Chinese Communist's Seeking Unification by Armed Forces

褚漢生

《海軍學術雙月刊》 52卷1期 (2018/02) Pp. 6-20

https://doi.org/10.6237/NPJ.201802_52(1).0001

摘要

一、中共戰略分析家金燦榮教授認為臺灣不承認九二共識，而習近平堅決必須承認九二共識，臺灣制約臺獨的力量已邊緣化，和平統一將無望，兩岸的總態勢必將走向衝突。二、中共運用多種致命性、懲罰性或是分裂性軍事行動，並可能結合明處與暗處的經濟、政治活動包含對臺灣政治、經濟、軍事設施的電腦網路攻擊，以打擊臺灣人民對領導階層的信心。三、中共藉特工作戰之成果，選擇有利時機，以導彈猝然對我軍、經設施及指、管、通、情與交通中心攻擊，隨即運用空（機）降部隊及氣墊船裝載陸戰旅，突擊我戰略要域及機場港口，迅速增長戰力，以達其攻略全島之目的。四、中共對臺動武，理論上不但有其能力，有其需要，也有其誘因。兩岸潛在的危機，確非危言聳聽，絕不能等閒視之。處此情勢，我必須盡一切力量，阻止此一危機由理論演變為實際行動的可能，讓中共從現實環境中瞭解武統之不可取。

關鍵字

武統 ； 軍事戰略 ； 防衛固守 ； 有效嚇阻 ； 多層嚇阻 ； 重層嚇阻

並列摘要

1.According to Jin Canrong, an analyst of the Chinese Communist's military strategy, Xi Jinping insists on the 1992 Consensus whereas Taiwan refuses to recognize it and the inner forces restricting Taiwan independence has been marginalized. Peaceful unification is thus hopeless and the overall situation across the Taiwan Strait is heading towards conflict. 2.The Chinese Communist would take a variety of lethal, punitive, or divisive military actions, in combination of the open or undercover economic and political activities, including cyber-warfare aiming at political, economic, military facilities, to strike the confidence of Taiwanese people to their leadership. 3.Employing the achievement of its special agents' warfare, the Chinese Communist might choose a favorable opportune moment to suddenly launch ballistic missiles to attack Taiwan's military and economic facilities as well as centers for commanding, management, communication, intelligence, and transportation. To enhance its combat power and then occupy the entire island, it would suddenly attack Taiwan's strategic areas, airports, and seaports by the airborne troops and the hovercrafts carrying the marine brigades would be followed. 4.Theoretically, the Chinese Communist not only has capability and necessity but has incentive to take military action against Taiwan. The potential cross-strait crisis is absolutely not an alarmist talk and should not regard it as unimportant. Under the circumstance, Taiwan must do its best to prevent this crisis in theory from turning into possible action on the one hand, and, on the other, to make the Chinese Communist realize that the unification by forces is unwise.

並列關鍵字

unifying Taiwan by forces ； military strategy ； resolute defense ； effective deterrence ； multilayered deterrence ； multi domaindeterrence