台灣總體計量模型之國際聯結與經濟衝擊跨國傳遞效應分析

A Marco-Econometric Research on Linkages between the World　and Taiwan

張絲喬(Ssu-Chiao Chang)

指導教授 ： 林建甫

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/經濟學研究所/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2011.10390

摘要

在通訊如此發達的時代，國際間的頻繁往來，使各國之間更為緊密相連，尤其台灣內需市場有限，天然資源亦不足，而有貿易依存度相當高之特性，更為容易受國際上衝擊之影響。近年來氣候異常，天災不斷，國際情勢亦有所改變，面對如此多的挑戰，台灣總體經濟將有什麼變化，成為相當令人關注的議題。
本文建立一台灣之總體計量模型，樣本期間為1961:1-2010:3，並以此模型評估模擬以下三種情境之影響：(1)開放陸客自由行後，中國大陸來台旅客人數成長(2)日本震後之景氣榮衰(3)國際糧食價格指數之波動，可得到以下結論：陸客來台人數的增加，可以帶動國內相關消費及經濟成長，不失為提振經濟發展之良方。而日本為我國之重要貿易夥伴，因此其復甦之情況將對我國造成同向之影響；若日本景氣相對熱絡，台灣國內經濟亦會有較佳之表現。另外，糧食自給率不足的台灣，亦深受國際糧價高漲之苦，若國際糧食價格指數持續升高，將使台灣經濟受到打擊，甚至有陷入停滯性通膨之危機。

關鍵字

總體計量模型 ； 陸客自由行 ； 國際糧食價格指數 ； 基準預測 ； 情境分析

並列摘要

Nowadays, the great improvement in technology makes communication much easier,and also makes the cooperation and interaction among countries more and more frequent. Taiwan especially has the high degree of trade dependence results from the limited domestic demand and resources, also makes it more vulnerable to the impact of international effects, so the effects on Taiwan’s economy due to the challenges occur recently such as the abnormal weathers, natural disasters, and the changing international
situation, become a matter of great concern.
In this paper, we build a macro-econometric model for the Taiwan economy, the sample period is from 1961:1 – 2010:3, and we use it to perform scenario analysis under the following three situations: (1) The spike in visitor numbers from Mainland China after the free exercise of mainland tourists policy is in effect, (2) Japan’s condition after the earthquake, (3) fluctuations in the global food price index, and we can reach the following conclusions: The spike in visitor numbers from Mainland China could lead to the increase in Taiwan’s domestic consumption and economic growth rate, for it could be viewed as a recipe to give Taiwan’s economy a boost. And as Taiwan’s main trading partner, Japan’s recovery situation could affect us in the same way; if Japan is well on its way to recovery, Taiwan’s domestic economy will have better performance. In addition, with a low self-sufficient rate of food, Taiwan is suffered from the upsurge in global food prices; the soaring global food price index will lead to a downturn in Taiwan’s economy, and even makes Taiwan fall into the crisis of stagflation.

並列關鍵字

macro-econometric model ； free exercise of mainland tourists ； global food price index ； scenario analysis

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