「一帶一路」戰略研究-以高鐵外交為例

中國大陸為了面對國內產能過剩、資源獲取、東西部發展不均，國際上美國「亞太再平衡」的問題，2013年習近平在出訪了中亞、東南亞國家後提出了「絲綢之路經濟帶和21世紀海上絲綢之路」戰略作為應對。並藉由2003年後高速發展的中國大陸高速鐵路來平衡東西部發展情況，並延伸出「高鐵外交」政策來配合「一帶一路」戰略，透過輸出高鐵技術、建立跨境高鐵來穩固、提升中國大陸與「一帶一路」戰略沿線國家的關係。然而高速鐵路的建設是一項需要龐大資金的工程，「一帶一路」沿線的部分國家，尤其以中國大陸周邊鄰國為主，通常都無法負擔如此龐大的資金，遂中國大陸提出了高貸款低率利的暫時方案來幫助這些國家解套，但在高速鐵路後續的債務償還方式、國家利益問題、環保等問題，再加上近年來因中國大陸崛起而產生的「中國威脅論」造成了雙方合約、認知上的分歧，中國要完成「一帶一路」戰略，勢必得尋找到一個方法來突破現在的困境。本文嘗試分析「一帶一路」下的「高鐵外交」政策在中國大陸目前的發展，並整理「走出去」戰略中的三大路線與成果，分析中國目前中國大陸碰到的問題以及可能的解決辦法。

關鍵字

一帶一路；高鐵外交；中國大陸高速鐵路

並列摘要

In order to face the domestic overcapacity, resource acquisition and uneven development of the East and the West, the issue of "Asia-Pacific rebalancing" of the United States, Xi Jinping proposed " The Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-century Maritime Silk Road "strategy as a response after visiting the Central Asian and Southeast Asian countries in 2013. And through the rapid development of China's high-speed railway to balance the development of the East and the West, and extended the "high-speed railway diplomacy" policy to tie in with the "2003" strategy, through the export of high-speed rail technology, the establishment of Cross-border high-speed railway stability, enhance the relationship between China and the countries along "The Belt and Road ". But the construction of high-speed railways is a project that requires huge amounts of money, home countries along "The Belt and Road", especially the neighboring countries of China, are usually unable to afford such a large amount of money, so China has proposed a temporary scheme for high loan and low interest rate to help these countries to solve the case, but in the follow-up of high-speed railway debt repayment. The problems of national interests, environmental protection and so on, coupled with the "China Threat Theory" arising from the rise of China in recent years, have resulted in the differences of contract and cognition between the two sides, China is bound to find a way to break through the present dilemma. This paper attempts to analyze the current development of the "high-speed railway diplomacy" policy in China, and to collate the three routes and results of "going global" strategy to analyze the problems and possible solutions in China.