島嶼永續觀光發展評估模式之研究

由於島嶼生態環境的脆弱性，其開發必須兼顧生態、經濟、社會的永續性。位於屏東縣的小琉球有著豐富的自然資源及適宜的氣候，近年來，在政府及民間大力倡導觀光發展的浪潮下，已成為台灣旅遊地點中旅客成長速度驚人的據點之一。然而，經濟發展與環境污染相伴而行，對區域生態環境安全會構成一定壓力。經濟的發展不能以犧牲生態環境爲代價，因此把握區域內生態環境的生態壓力狀况，成為本研究亟欲探討的議題。本研究首先應用旅遊能值生態足跡量化小琉球2010-2019年的人均旅遊能值生態承載力、人均旅遊能值生態足跡以及人均旅遊能值生態赤字等四項指標，藉以檢視小琉球旅遊環境現況；其次，運用灰色模型對小琉球旅遊生態安全進行預測，以作為旅遊環境政策執行與規劃的參考依據；最後，根據研究結果，對小琉球永續觀光發展提出對策和建議。研究結果顯示：(1)小琉球人均旅遊能值生態承載力在2010-2019年呈微波動變化，人均旅遊能值生態足跡呈現下降趨勢；(2)2010-2019年小琉球的旅遊生態環境處於較不安全狀態，但其相關指數有明顯下降趨勢；(3)利用灰色模型預測結果顯示，2020-2029年小琉球的人均旅遊能值生態赤字及旅遊生態壓力指數縮小，旅遊生態安全預警預計於2022年將達到2級的輕級較安全狀態，顯示小琉球的旅遊生態將朝向永續觀光發展狀態。

關鍵字

島嶼觀光；氣候變遷；能值生態足跡；生態安全；灰色模型

並列摘要

Due to the fragility of island ecosystem, island tourism development plans must be thoroughly evaluated with consideration of ecology, economy and society sustainability. Liuqiu Island is the famous recreation sight-seeing resort with abundant natural resources and the suitable climate. In recent years, benefited from many investments made by public and private sectors, Liuqiu Island has become one of the fast growing tourist sites in Taiwan. However, economic development and environmental pollution go hand in hand, posing a certain pressure on regional ecological and environmental security.Economic development can no longer be at the expense of the ecological environment, how to grasp the ecological pressure of the ecological environment in the region is the main purposes of this study. This study applied emergy ecological footprints quantify the EEFs and emergy ecological carrying capacity of Liuqiu Island between 2010 and 2019 to examine the current environmental situation of the area. In addition, we employed the grey model to predict the EEF, emergy ecological carrying capacity, and ecological safety of Liuqiu Island. Based on the research results, we provided a reference for environmental policy execution and planning, as well as strategies and suggestions for the sustainable development of Liuqiu Island. The results indicated the following: (a) The 2010–2019 per capita ecological carrying capacities of Liuqiu Island exhibited fluctuations, although the per capita ecological footprint (EF) grew substantially. (b) Between 2010 and 2019, the ecological environment of Liuqiu Island satisfied the safety standard; however, the related indices increased considerably. (c) The prediction results of the grey model showed that the 2020–2029 ecological carrying capacities of Liuqiu Island decreased and the per capita EFs increased extensively, which enlarged the ecological deficit and elevated the EF pressure index. the level of ecological security is expected to reach the Grade 2 intermediate level in 2022, indicating that Liuqiu Island is gradually becoming ecologically sustainable.