近年來我國因高齡化與少子化雙重趨勢下,對於老年人口的照護安養等社會福利問題成為政府與金融市場關注的議題。因此,不動產逆向抵押貸款(Reverse Mortgages)政策的推動與實施有其必要性,透過不動產逆向抵押貸款的方式達到「在地安養」(aging in place),讓高齡人口族群能利用此機制達到自食其力,並減輕生活負擔,本研究透過計量分析與情境模擬的方式,分析台灣是否適合不動產逆向抵押貸款的方式達到「以房養老」(Housing Endowment)的目的以及不動產逆向抵押貸款在台灣推行之可行性。 本研究透過確定型房價成長模型(deterministic model)進行分析,考慮需求者之壽命、利率、不動產淨值與不動產淨值年成長率以及貸款期間影響不動產逆向抵押貸款之貸款定價;情境模擬的部分則利用確定型房價成長模型之試算結果,納入所得替代率分析比較各種利率與年期變化下各縣市之適用情況,分析各縣市推行不動產逆向抵押貸款是否達到需求者之生活門檻,以論證不動產逆向抵押貸款是否達到「以房養老」的目的,其結論發現,不動產淨值高與不動產淨值年成長率高之地區如台北市、新北市、桃園縣、新竹市、台中市、彰化縣以及高雄市可以依靠各期領取之年金作為退休後之主要經濟來源。
Due to aging and low fertility under the influence for nursing care of the elderly population and other social welfare issues become issues of concern the government and the financial markets in recent years in Taiwan. Therefore, “Reverse Mortgages” policy is necessary to promote the implementation of, to "aging in place”. Using the quantitative analysis model and situation simulation in this study, analysis of whether elderly population fit real way to achieve reverse mortgages of real estate to the "Housing Endowment", and reverse mortgages of real estate feasibility of implementation in Taiwan. In this study, using deterministic model, consider the life of the borrower, the impact pricing of reverse mortgages of real estate by interest rate, the net present value of real estate, annual growth rate of real estate and the cost of reverse mortgages; in situation simulation use of the results of a deterministic model, analysis of changes in interest rates and the loan period of applicability of the various regions through the income replacement rate, proving whether the reverse mortgages to the "Housing Endowment". In conclusion, high net present value of real estate and high annual growth rate of real estate of counties such as Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan County, Hsinchu City, Taichung City, Changhua County and Kaohsiung City, each annuity can be used as the main source of income after retirement.