影響臺中市法拍屋流標因素之研究

本研究是利用2016年至2018年間台中市八個行政區於地方法院標售房屋共463筆案件，分析影響法拍屋未能拍出的因素，希望能提供購屋者及執行法院未來拍賣程序改善之參考。本研究以羅吉斯迴歸分析法拍屋流標之影響因素。實證結果發現，法拍屋不點交與是否流標呈現正相關，法拍屋流標機率隨著不點交方式增加而提高，卻隨著拍次增加而遞減，但三拍後呈現流標機率卻大為增加，究其原因乃因房屋品相與條件較佳之法拍屋經二次折價，三次拍賣已具投資價值致使流標機率下降，而後拍次之法拍屋因條件較差自然流標機率大增。競標者在追求極大化利潤下，每坪底價增加每1單位時，流標機率隨之增加；相對地，競標者考量法拍屋每坪底價與類似每坪市價之價差，故呈現類似每坪市價與流標呈現負向關係，表示類似每坪市價每增加1個單位，流標機率相對減低。同時發現區位地段如新興重劃區之北屯區因位處較為郊區房價平實，或西屯區為台中市的行政、商業活動中心等，導致該兩區法拍屋交易量較其它區位活絡的現象。而競標者喜好法拍屋類型為大樓優於華廈，偏好高樓勝過低樓層或地下室，導致低樓層尤其地下室相對較易產生流標之現象。羅吉斯迴歸模型分析，發現法拍屋是否點交、拍次、每坪底價、所屬樓層及類似每坪市價等變數是影響法拍屋流標的顯著重要因素。

關鍵字

法拍屋；點交；每坪底價；類似每坪巿價；二元羅吉斯迴歸

並列摘要

This study is to analyze the influencing factors of unsold foreclosures by examining the outcomes of 463 foreclosed apartment cases in eight districts of Taichung City from 2016 to 2018, in hope of providing buyers and the courts reference to improve the current auction process. This study attempts to figure out the influencing factors that affect the unsold foreclosures based on the Logistic Regression Model. The empirical result shows that whether the unsold foreclosures are handed over positively correlate with whether the auctions are successful. When the foreclosures aren’t handed over, the probability of the failure in the auctions would be higher, while the probability of unsold foreclosures would decrease gradually through the increasing time of auctions. However, after the third auction, the probability of unsold foreclosures would increase dramatically. It is probably because the foreclosed houses with better appearance and condition through 2-time discount have higher investment value in 3-time auction, so there will only be the foreclosed houses in worse condition left after the later auction. For pursuing profit maximization, the probability of unsold foreclosures will rise if the basic price per ping increases one unit. By contrast, to consider the price difference, there is a negative relationship between the market price of similar buildings and the unsold foreclosures, which means that the probability of the unsold foreclosures decreases when each additional unit of the market price per ping rises. This study also found that the geographical location such as Beitun District which is a new redevelopment zone has fairer housing prices due to the suburban area, and Xitun District which is the administrative and commercial center of Taichung City, the trading volume of foreclosed houses in these two districts is more active than that of the other districts. Furthermore, bidders prefer apartments over 7 floors to apartments under 7 floors and also prefer the upper floor rather than the lower floor or the basement. Therefore, the auction of the basement is much easier to fail. Through Logistic Regression Model analysis, the study found that the variables include: whether there is a handover, times of auctioning, the basic price per ping, the floor to which the building belongs and the market price of similar buildings per ping all have significant impacts on the unsold foreclosures.