本研究係根據PPB制度的精神,主要從軍事威脅的觀點,進行研究分析並驗證軍事防禦能力與地緣威脅型態兩者,對國防預算規模影響之關係,並進一步探討冷戰結束前後與911事件發生後這兩個時期,造成軍事威脅的來源產生不同變化,其對世界各國國防預算變化與影響之因素。 本研究以1991年蘇聯解體(也就是冷戰結束)為第一個劃分點,就冷戰結束前、後十年為研究期間;另以美國911事件發生年度2001年為第二劃分點,就事件發生前五年及後五年研究期間。就上列時間內以「各國軍備概況」(The Military Balance)所列國家為研究樣本進行實證,並依據研究結果,彙整歸納出研究結論,並提出後續研究方向與建議。 研究結果顯示:(1)威脅來自海上的國家其國防預算需求會高於威脅來自陸上的國家;(2)不同地緣威脅型態的國家,其兵力組成結構亦會有所不同;(3)隨著冷戰結束,兩極對抗的世界格局解體,各國地緣威脅型態、軍事防禦能力與國防預算的關係亦有所不同;(4)軍事防禦能力愈強的國家,其所需的國防預算規模亦會愈大;(5)地緣威脅型態直接影響國家的兵力組成結構,而高科技能力、海、空軍戰力之建構需龐大的國防預算規模,國軍應對國防預算需求的增加提出因應措施。
In the study, we research and analysis the scale of impact of defence budget from defense capabilities and geographic threat. And to further explore the difference of military threat and the factors of changes of its defence budget with before and after the Cold War or 911 Terrorist Attack. The range of data have two division point. The first division point is the end of Cold War. We collected the data before ten years and after ten years of Cold War. The second division point is in 2001, 911Terrorist Attack. The data before the incident occurred five years and five years after that we collected. The above period of time series data that we collected from The Military Balance. Based on data, we try to analyze the hypotheses, summarize the conclusions, and propose future research directions and suggestions. The results showed: (1) the country’s demand of defence budget which threats from the sea is higher than the country’s that threats from the land; (2) different types of geo-threat countries, the force composition will be different; (3) with the Cold War the relationship of defence budget with the type of geographic threat and military defense capability are different; (4)the stronger of the military defense capabilities ,the size of its defence budget will be greater; (5) the type of geographic threat impact directly on the composition of military. And in order to construct the high-tech, sea force, air force needs huge size of defence budget. Therefore our government should propose the suggestion for the demand of defence budget.