中國大陸人口紅利與經濟發展研究

Studies on China's Demographic Dividend and Economic Development

王柏竣(Bo-Chun Wang)

指導教授 ： 李志強

淡江大學/國際研究學院/中國大陸研究所碩士班/碩士(2014年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2014.00651

摘要

中國大陸自改革開放以來，經濟持續高速增長，其中一個重要的因素在於人口紅利上。近三十年中，因計劃生育所產生有利經濟發展的人口結構，對中國經濟發展起到顯著的效果，但由於近年勞動力資源由無限供給轉向有限剩餘，以及青年受教育程度的提升，導致進入職場的勞動力銳減，使低技術、低成本、低附加價值等勞力密集型產業受到衝擊，如何延長人口紅利期或以其他方式替代數量型人口紅利越來越受到關注。此外，並非中國各地都面臨人口紅利問題，尤其東南沿海地區不再以勞力密集產業為主要發展對象，近年推出騰籠換鳥政策，配合西部大開發戰略，中國試著把勞力密集型產業移往中西部地區，以平衡各區域的經濟發展。東南沿海地區主要面臨產業結構升級的問題，必須確立動態比較優勢，形成新的競爭力，另一個因素為，當勞動力素質提升之際，同時須讓產業結構也有相應升級，否則缺工荒及就業難的問題將越趨嚴重。本文藉由整合相關文獻，進一步說明人口紅利轉換為人口負債的過程。首先分析中國實行的人口政策，說明前期人口紅利在中國大陸的形成原因，以致往後形成有利於經濟發展的人口結構，其次，結合相關實證研究數據，研究人口紅利對中國大陸經濟發展的貢獻，最後探討後期人口紅利衰減對中國大陸經濟帶來的影響和中國應對人口紅利消失後的相關政策。

關鍵字

人口紅利 ； 計劃生育 ； 人口結構 ； 產業結構 ； 人口負債 ； 缺工荒

並列摘要

Since the reform and opening up , China have sustained rapid economic growth , one of the important factors is the demographic dividend . Last three decades, due to population structure conducive to economic development arising from family planning , China had a significant effects in economic . But in recent years , the labor resources turned to the limited remaining from the unlimited supply and enhanced the level of education of youth , it lead to the decreasing workplace labor quantity in low-tech , low-cost , low- value-added and other labor- intensive industries affected . More and more attention , how to extend the period of the demographic dividend or the other way to substitute for demographic dividend of quantitative . In addition, not all regions in China are benefited from demographic dividend , especially in the southeast coastal areas which are no longer to develop labor-intensive industries for economic released the policy of emptying the cage for the new birds in recent years , with the western development strategy , China tried to move labor- intensive industries from southeast coastal to midwest area to balance the economic development of the regions. The major problem that southeast coastal areas facing is how to upgrade the industrial structure ? They have to establish dynamic comparative advantage to form a new competitive edge . Besides , another factor is when labor’s quality have improved , the industrial structure should be correspond upgrade at the same time , otherwise , the labor shortage and lack of employment issues will become serious continuously . This paper described the transforming process of the demographic dividend into demographic liabilities by integrating relevant information. First of all , analyzing the population policies that implemented in China and indicating the reasons for the early stage of the demographic dividend in China so that the population structure was conducive to economic development . Secondly , researching demographic dividend contribution to China's economic development by combined with empirical research data . Finally, exploring the impact of the decreasing demographic dividend in China and their response to the policy for the disappearance of demographic dividend.

並列關鍵字

Demographic dividend ； Family planning ； Population structure ； Industrial structure

參考文獻

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