歐巴馬政府時期的美國南海政策

U.S POLICY TOWARDS SOUTH CHINA SEA DISPUTES UNDER THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION

西蒙恩(Timon Uatioa)

指導教授 ： 李大中

淡江大學/國際研究學院/國際事務與戰略研究所碩士班/碩士(2016年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2016.00915

摘要

這份報告主要是探討美國總統歐巴馬的南海策略。其中美國和中國是扮演著最關鍵的角色，而問題的主因是針對中國在南海地區與相鄰國家的領土爭議；這份報告會探討的是從過去到現在歐巴馬及中國的南海政策對兩國國際關係及南海地區的局勢的影響衝擊。
這份論述當中可以看出美國從1975年後就一直以來扮演著「中立國」的角色，直到2009歐巴馬的主張改變了原有的現況，他根據不同的國際局勢和中國的行為舉止而做出應變及回應。
此論述中也看得出歐巴馬政府不時對於中國的南海侵略行動提出自我堅定的立場，但大致上還是小心翼翼處理，以不造成相互經濟利益衝突為主。然而，有許多的例子可證明中國的南海侵略行動依舊在持續上演中並未停止。總兒言之，美國與中國之間在南海議題上小衝突是無可避免的，但起碼在歐巴馬的主張之下，現階段南海議題不至於造成美國與中國的武力衝突!

關鍵字

美國南海政策 ； 歐巴馬政府時期 ； 中國政策

並列摘要

This paper examines U.S foreign policy in South China Sea disputes under the Obama administration. The two major actors involved are the U.S and China together with littoral States in Asia whom together with China have territorial disputes in South China Sea. The paper generally examines and analyzes Obama policy towards the disputes together with China’s policy and how the former and the latter respective policies impact their bilateral relations and the situation (stability) of the region (South China Sea).
The study shows that U.S policy in South China Sea of ‘neutral position’ remained ever since it introduced in 1975 until Obama came into office in 2009. However the study shows that eventually under the Obama administration different elements of the policy appear and the depth varies depending on the situation especially on China’s behavior.
The study also shows that Obama policy though took a tough stance at times in the wake of Chinese aggression, Obama generally tend to be more cautious of the consequences that could disrupt and destroy mutual economic interest. Likewise China though continues with aggression as in their land reclamation, there are instances which show cooperation on their part. As such, this study suggests that U.S and China would not fight or militarily confront each other in South China Sea at least under the Obama administration. Minor conflict is expected at times as mentioned but would not escalate into military confrontation at least under the Obama administration.

並列關鍵字

U.S policy under Obama ； South China Sea disputes ； China's policy

參考文獻

Emmers Ralf. Cooperative Security and the Balance of Power in ASEAN and the ARF. Taylor & UK: Francis e-Library, 2004, p.112.

Chu Shulong, “Perspectives on the South China Sea: China’s view on US Policy in South China Sea”, Center for Strategic and International Studies CSIS, September, (2014) p.16-17.

Gill Bates, “From peaceful rise to assertiveness? Explaining changes in China’s foreign and security policy under Hu Jintao” Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), April 18-19, 2013, p.2.

Kelsey Broderick, “Chinese Activities in the South China Sea: Implications for the American Pivot to Asia”, Project 20149 Institute, May, 2015, p.1.

McDevitt, Michael. “The South China Sea: Assessing U.S. Policy and Options for the Future.” A Center for Naval Analysis (CNA) occasional paper (2014) vi.