民主化對非洲國家經濟成長的影響-合成控制法的應用

The impact of democracy on Economic growth in selected African countries- A Synthetic Control Method

林虹均(Hung-Chun Lin)

指導教授 ： 林佩蒨

淡江大學/商管學院/產業經濟學系碩士班/碩士(2016年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2016.00996

摘要

第三波民主化浪潮在1990年代襲捲非洲，許多國家開始走向自由化、民主化，想藉此吸引外國資金投入，來刺激經濟成長，但民主化究竟能不能帶來經濟成長，是本研究所要探討的主題。我們以7個非洲民主化國家為實證樣本(治療組)，並輔以29個未實施民主化的國家作為控制組，參考Papaioannou et al. (2008)以民主化時點所建構的虛擬變數，來當作民主化之指標。而本研究資料期間為1980-2010年，透過近年來發展的合成控制法(Synthetic control Method, SCM)做比較案例分析，並得出以下之結論：
1. 民主化對非洲國家的經濟影響各異。
2. 經由安慰劑檢驗發現民主化對非洲國家的經濟成長並未帶來統計上顯著的效果。
3. 民主化政策在非洲施行並未帶來經濟上的好處，主要原因可能是因為非洲的基礎設施以及教育等建設方面均落後於西方國家，使得施行民主的立基點不同，因而帶來不同的經濟結果。

關鍵字

經濟成長 ； 民主化 ； 非洲國家 ； 合成控制法

並列摘要

As the third wave of democratization was spreading out across Africa in the 1990s, many African countries began to move towards liberalization and democratization. These democratized countries wanted to attract foreign capital investment to stimulate their economic growth. But does democratization really help to economic growth in these countries? That is our main concern for this study. By applying the Synthetic Control Method (SCM), we investigate the impact of democratization on real GDP per capital of selected African countries. Our sample consists of 36 countries, with 7 treated Africa (democratized) countries and 29 control African (un-democratized) countries, over the 1980-2010 period. The main findings of this research are as follows:

1..Democratization has exerted heterogeneous effects on economic growth for
different countries.
2..Nevertheless, the results from a variety of placebo tests show that the economic effect
resulting from democratization is statistically insignificant.
3..The lack of economic benefit resulting from democratization for these democratized
African countries can be attributed to the shortage of infrastructure, the lower educational level and the colonial background of African countries.

並列關鍵字

Economic growth ； democratization ； African countries ； SCM

參考文獻

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