以系統動態模擬國民教育向下延伸一年政策之規劃研究

Simulating the Study of the Policy Formulation of the Downward Extension of National Education by System Dynamics

詹涵如(Han-Lu Chan)

指導教授 ： 翁興利

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/公共行政暨政策學系/碩士(2008年)

摘要

本研究之目的，是以系統動態學理論建立合乎「國民教育向下延伸一年」政策之國幼班策略的模型，試圖找出提昇未來幼兒就讀國幼班比率之因素，並運用系統動態模擬不同情境變數與政策改變時，對於未來幼兒就讀國幼班比率之影響，以期作為日後教育當局制定政策之參考。
本研究選定的測試方案為現行制度、降低班級人數、增加教師編制數、提升幼教經費比
比率這四方案進行測試，而測試情境為提高估計未來就讀國幼班比率情境。研究結果發
現:降低班級人數、增加教師編制數、提升幼教經費比率這三個方案在現行狀況情境下，對於提升幼兒就讀國幼班比率在政策施行之初期及長期皆有其成效，而其中又以增加教師編制數成效最為顯著，降低班級人數次之，提升幼教經費比率為末。
在提昇未來估計就讀國幼班學生比率情境之下，這三個方案在政策實施初期的成效皆不明顯，尤其以增加幼教經費比率差異性最小，模擬成效與現行狀況情境是大致是相同的。
在混合政策下，降低班級人數、增加教師編制數在兩個情境之下的政策效果是最為顯著的。在提昇未來估計就讀國幼班學生比率情境之下，政策初期的效果皆不是很明顯，但在政策長時間的實施之下，較現行狀況情境下的效果來的明確。

關鍵字

系統動態學；國民教育向下延伸一年；國幼班

並列摘要

The purpose of the study is using system dynamics to build the model of “the policy formulation of the downward extension of national education” of Guo-You kindergarten classes’ strategies. The model is to try to discover the influential factors to increase the rate of children studying in Guo-You kindergarten classes’ and be the reference to the policy makers in the future.
Four policy recommendations have chosen: (1) maintain the status quo, (2) decrease the students of the class, (3) increase the teachers of the class, and (4) Increase the preschool education funds ratio. The study simulates the preceding policy recommendations under the increases the rate of children studying in Guo-You kindergarten classes’ in the future scenario. The results show that three policy recommendations under the preceding scenario all have effect in the short-term and the long-term. Increasing the teacher number of the class is the most effective, decreasing the student number of the class is the second, and increasing the preschool education funds ratio is the third.
Three policy recommendations effects are not obviously in the short-term, especially increasing the preschool education funds ratio under the increases the rate of children studying in Guo-You kindergarten classes’ in the future scenario. The simulation result and the preceding scenario are approximately same.
The hybrid-policy’s effect of decreasing the student number of the class and increasing the teacher number of the class is the most obvious under the two scenarios. The effects of hybrid-policies are not obvious under the increases the rate of children studying in Guo-You kindergarten classes’ in the future scenario, but are more effective than the preceding scenario in the long-term.

並列關鍵字

system dynamics ； the downward extension of national education ； Guo-You kindergarten classes’

參考文獻

蔡佳純(2003b)，《國民教育向下延伸一年政策分析之研究》，中原大學教育研究所碩士論文。

施宏彥(2005)，〈強化幼兒教育政策減緩少子化衝擊之研究〉，《嘉南學報》，第31期，頁476-492

何金針、唐璽惠 (2006)，〈少子化趨勢對幼稚園經營之衝擊及因應策略〉，《學校行政》，第43期， 頁242-252。

朱淑雅(1998)，《國民小學教師評鑑效標之研究》，國立臺北師範學院國民教育研究所碩士論文。

蔡佳純(2003a)，〈對國民教育向下延伸一年之教改政策之芻見〉，《師說》，第175期，頁37-39。