苗栗縣政治版圖之研究

The Research of Political Landscape for Miaoli County

黃國敏(Edward K. Hwang)

《中華行政學報》 15期 (2014/12) Pp. 139-166

https://doi.org/10.6712/JCPA.201412_(15).0007

摘要

根據民國90年以來十次全縣性大選，包括立法委員選舉、縣長選舉與總統選舉結果各候選人所屬政黨得票數與得票率做點估計，泛綠政黨在苗栗縣的平均得票數約有88020票，平均得票率約為31.14%；而泛藍政黨在苗栗縣的平均得票數約有187152票，平均得票率約為66.56%。泛藍全縣政治版圖約大於泛綠全縣政治版圖35.42%。若進一步分成兩區來做點估計，泛藍第一（海線）選區政治版圖約大於泛綠第一（海線）選區政治版圖23.15%。泛藍第二（山線）選區政治版圖約大於泛綠第二（山線）選區政治版圖46.22%。若以區間估計來分析，泛藍全縣政治版圖約大於泛綠全縣政治版圖介於33.6%至37.23%之間。若進一步分成兩區來做區間估計，泛藍第一選區政治版圖約大於泛綠第一選區政治版圖介於21.44%至24.87%之間。泛藍第二選區政治版圖約大於泛綠第二選區政治版圖介於45.68%至46.77%之間。賴進貴、葉高華與張智昌（2007）的研究指出苗栗縣的 Moran's I 為 0.6716，標準化的Z（I）為18.72，顯示苗栗縣具有強烈的地域差異，政治支持對象明顯偏深藍，本文分析結果也顯示苗栗縣應屬泛藍超強地區；藍軍在苗栗縣長選舉當可穩操勝劵。綠軍在單一選區制，除了海線部分鄉鎮如苑裡鎮以外幾乎無機會，其政治舞台只侷限在複數選區制如縣議員選舉或鄉鎮市民代表選舉。2014年11月29日投票結果民進黨提名的吳宜臻得到89838票，得票率28.37%，國民黨提名的新黃派徐耀昌得到147547票，得票率46.59%，而隸屬國民黨老黃派的康世儒得到60356票，得票率19.06%，所以泛藍的得票數是207903票，泛藍的得票率是65.65%，可見相較於其他縣市，藍綠政治版圖在苗栗縣迄今尚未鬆動。

關鍵字

苗栗縣 ； 選舉 ； 政治版圖

並列摘要

With the votes for the candidates belonging to which party to do the point estimation using the electoral data since 2001, including legislative, magistrate, and presidential elections, the average number of votes is about 88,020 and the average percent is approximately 31.14% for the pan-green party; and the average number of votes is about 187,152 and the average percent is approximately 66.56% for the pan-blue party. Therefore, the pan-blue political landscape 35.42% greater than the pan-green in Miaoli County. When divided into two areas to do the point estimations that the pan-blue political landscape 23.15% greater than the pan-green in the first ( or coastal) constituency; and the pan-blue political landscape 46.22% greater than the pan-green in the second ( or mountain) constituency. With the votes for the candidates belonging to which party to do the interval estimation, the pan-blue political landscape is greater than the pan-green between 33.6% and 37.23% in Miaoli County. When divided into two areas to do the interval estimations, the pan-blue political landscape is greater than the pan-green between 21.44% and 24.87% in the first (or coastal) constituency; the pan-blue political landscape is greater than the pan-green between 45.68% and 46.77% in the second (or mountain) constituency. The Moran's I is 0. 6716 and the Standardized Z (I) is 18.72, and they display there is a strong regional differences, and the political support is obviously tending to the dark blue party according to the Lai Jingui, et al. (2007). This paper also shows that Miaoli County is a pan-blue super region. The Blue League should win the majority constituency system, like magistrate election. The Green League has no chance to win excepting in the coastal area like Yuanli Township; the pan-green has some political chance only in the plural constituency system, for example, the county councilor election. However, the results of 2014 election shows that the pan-blue total vote number is 207,903 and the pan-blue vote percent is 65.65%; the pan-green total vote number is 89,838 and the pan-green vote percent is 28.37%; compared with other cities and counties, the political landscape in Miaoli County does not become loosened yet.

並列關鍵字

Miaoli County ； Election ； Political Landscape

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