本研究使用專利分析與生命週期觀點來預測TFT-LCD技術發展趨勢。 本研究使用國際專利分類號做為專利檢索條件,並與專家進行訪談。 本研究最後以G02F1/13做為TFT-LCD技術發展趨勢之專利策略條件。本研究以G02F1/13之專利累積數量衡量技術績效,並利用羅吉斯成長模型描繪TFT-LCD技術生命週期。 本研究發現,技術萌芽期由1976年至1990年、技術成長期由1990年至2007年,技術成熟期由2007年至2021年,在2021年則進入技術衰退期。 本研究亦發現分析產業技術發展趨勢時,考慮技術領導廠商更可提升預測之正確性。 本研究完成於2003年,處於技術成長期中段。故本研究結論如下: 一、因應TFT-LCD高度成長,廠商可考量增加投資 二、生產技術亦將提升 三、臺灣廠商面臨的專利訟訴將增加
This research use patent analysis and the life cycle theory for technique development tendency of TFT-LCD industry. This research use International Patent Classification for the patent analysis, and discusses by the expert. This research finally does take G02F1/13 as main patent analysis strategy for the TFT-LCD technology development tendency. This research use Patent accumulation quantity by the G02F1/13 for technology performance, and predict the TFT-LCD technology life cycle using logistic growth model. This research finds: Technology Embryonic stage:1976-1990 Technology Growth stage :1990-2007 Technology maturity stage:2007-2021 Technology Decline stage:2021- This research also finds that using technical leaders information when analyzing industry technology development tendency will promote forecast accuracy. This research completes in 2003, locates the technology growth stage. Therefore this research conclusion as follows: 1。Because the TFT-LCD industry will highly grow, the merchant may consider increases the investment 2。The production technology performance also will highly grow 3。The Taiwan merchant will face the patent war.