都市地區時序性日間人口推估

胡傳中

doi:10.6342/NTU.2004.02369

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都市地區時序性日間人口推估

A Time Series Estimation of Daytime Population in Urban Area

胡傳中 , Masters　　Advisor：林峰田　　

繁體中文 DOI： 10.6342/NTU.2004.02369

日間活動形態；迴歸分析方法；日間人口；滯留人口；人口分佈；人口推估； population distribution ； daytime activities ； instantaneous population ； daytime population ； population estimatation ； regression models

Abstract │ Reference (31) │ Times Cited (2) │ Altmetrics

Abstract 〈TOP〉

Parallel Abstract 〈TOP〉

Daytime population is an essential data for urban planning, transportation planning, disaster prevention planning, etc. Up to now it’s still difficult to estimate daytime population in urban area. The Architechture & Building Reseach Institude, Ministry of the Interior, Taiwan has developed a method to calculate population circulation for several business activities in urban areas last years. But due to lack of business composition data in certain areas, the method couldn’t be used to estimate the spatial distribution of daytime population. 
The research is to develop a method to estimate the tempo-spatial population distribution. We take Shiling District, Taipei as a test area. Estimating daytime population begins with investigating the daytime population of various urban land uses, then building up the regression models of daytime population against the corresponding land use areas for each daytime hour. For the buildings whose composite uses are known, we can use corresponding regression models to estimate daytime populations of the buildings. For the buildings whose composite uses are unknown, we use average daytime population density of the buildings which daytime populations are already estimated in the same land use zone to estimate their daytime population. Eventually we can estimate the daytime population of all areas.
Via investigation we can construct the time series regression models for daytime populations of all kinds of activities. One third of the regression models whose R2 values are higher than 0.8, and R2 values of others are mostly in the range of from 0.4 to 0.7. The result shows that in Shiling District, the average daytime population during holidays is about 1.12 times of the registered population; on the other hand, the average daytime population during non-holidays is about 1.41 times of the registered population. Thus, the variation of daytime population in non-holidays is greater than that in holidays.

Reference ( 31 ) 〈TOP〉

1. 王安強(1982)。台北市商業設施旅次吸引預測模型之建立與應用-以本及商業銀行、百貨公司、電影院為例。國立臺灣大學土木工程研究所碩士論文。
連結：
4. 交通部運輸研究所(1993)。都會區不同土地使用型態旅次產生率之研究。台北：交通部運輸研究所。
連結：
1. Abraham Akkerman (1995). The urban household pattern of daytime population change. Annals of Regional Science, 29(1), NY: Springer Verlag.
連結：
2. Clark, C. (1967). Population growth and land use. New York: St. Martin's P.
連結：
3. Donnay, J. & Barnsley M. & Longley P. (2001). Remote Sensing and Urban Analysis. London & New York: Taylor & Francis.
連結：

Times Cited (2) 〈TOP〉

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